Methodology
How Elofoot predicts matches
We believe in transparency. Here’s exactly where our data comes from, how the AI turns it into probabilities and scenarios, what those numbers mean - and their limits. No black box, no magic promises.
Our data sources
Official match data
Recent form (last 5 matches), scores, line-ups, events (goals, cards, VAR) and match statuses come from an established football data provider (API-Football).
xG & advanced stats
Expected goals (xG), possession, shots, corners and fouls aggregated over recent matches to measure real performance beyond the scoreline.
Injuries, standings, H2H
Injuries and suspensions, standings and points, and head-to-head history - all synced regularly and timestamped.
Data freshness
Data is continuously re-synced. A prediction is only regenerated when the underlying data changes, so it stays consistent with the current reality.
How the AI reasons
Aggregation, not invention
The AI works ONLY from the provided data. It does not "guess" a missing stat: if information is missing, it isn’t cited.
Calibrated, coherent probabilities
The win / draw / loss distribution is calibrated on the match signals and always mathematically coherent: it sums to 100%.
Cross-market coherence
Expected score, scenarios, expected goals (xG) and goals projection are reasoned together so they don’t contradict each other.
What the numbers mean
1X2 probabilities
An estimate of each outcome’s relative likelihood. A team at 60% is not "sure to win" - statistically it would still lose ~4 times out of 10 over the long run.
xG (expected goals)
The quality of chances, expressed as the number of goals a team "should have" scored. High xG with few goals = bad luck or a good opposing keeper, not necessarily a poor performance.
Scenarios
Plausible outcome narratives (estimated + alternatives), not a single prediction set in stone.
Limits & honesty
Football is unpredictable by nature: a red card, a penalty, a mistake can change everything. Our predictions are reasoned estimates based on available data, not certainties. Quality depends on data freshness and completeness; on lightly covered competitions some stats may be missing (and are not invented).
Not betting advice
Elofoot is an AI-assisted statistical analysis tool, for informational purposes. Our predictions are not advice, an incentive or a guarantee regarding sports betting. Please gamble responsibly.