2026 World Cup - live coverage

Journal

The Elofoot blog.

Breakdowns, trends and 2026 World Cup prep. Data, not miracle tips.

Probabilities for every match and AI analysis: free, no credit card.

Packed stadium seen from the stands during an evening match

25 September 202610 min read

Premier League predictions: how AI calculates the correct score

The 2026-27 table after five matchweeks, the Matchweek 6 fixtures and a worked Liverpool v Man City example: how a model turns goals into a correct score.

Premier LeagueCorrect score

Football match played at night under floodlights

25 September 20267 min read

Winning football prediction sites: 7 criteria to check

A verifiable record, real probabilities, no promise of winnings: 7 criteria for choosing a reliable football prediction site and avoiding the scams.

MethodologyResponsible gambling

Computer screen showing charts and statistics

25 September 20268 min read

Best free AI football predictions: how to compare tools

Probabilities that add up to 100%, calibration, a public track record: how to spot a good free AI football prediction tool, with no promise of winnings.

AIMethodology

Two players challenging for the ball close to the turf

25 September 202610 min read

AFCON 2027 qualifiers: fixtures, groups and predictions

All 12 groups, every fixture of the September-October window, the host-nation rule that squeezes Nigeria and South Africa, and a data method for predictions.

AFCON 2027International football

Packed, floodlit covered stadium for an evening match

25 September 20269 min read

Nations League predictions 2026-27: fixtures and groups

Format, League A groups, every fixture of the 24 Sept - 6 Oct window in UK and Nairobi time, England v Spain, and how to predict Nations League matches.

Nations LeagueInternational football

Football resting on the grass of a stadium pitch

25 September 20268 min read

Sure correct score predictions: do they really exist?

No correct score is 100% sure. The Poisson maths shows why the most likely score rarely tops 15%, and how to spot fake VIP and fixed-match scams.

Correct scoreMethodology

Player resting a boot on a football before taking a shot

25 September 20269 min read

How to predict a correct score: a step-by-step method

Form, xG, head-to-head, context, then the Poisson distribution: how to find a match's most likely correct score, worked through on a Premier League fixture.

Correct scoreMethodology

Close-up of a football scoreboard and match statistics

25 September 202610 min read

Football predictions: 7 common mistakes to avoid

Recency bias, overrated streaks, head-to-head myths, ignoring xG and team news: the 7 mistakes that ruin football predictions, and how a model avoids them.

MethodologyMistakes

Data analysis dashboard with charts and tables

25 September 20268 min read

How AI football predictions work: Elofoot's method

From raw match data to expected goals, Poisson probabilities and a plain-English scenario: the full chain behind an Elofoot prediction, limits included.

MethodologyData

Injured football player being treated by medical staff at the side of the pitch

25 September 20269 min read

Injuries and suspensions: how to read team news for predictions

One missing holding midfielder can swing a match. How to read team news and confirmed line-ups, position by position, before trusting a football prediction.

MethodologyLine-ups

Football coach's tactics board with formations and arrows

25 September 20269 min read

1X2 predictions vs match scenarios: why knowing who wins isn't enough

A 1X2 tells you who should win, not how. Why reading the scenario of a match (score, tempo, goals) makes a football prediction far more useful, with a worked example.

TacticsScenarios

Football scoreboard and match statistics

25 September 20268 min read

10 best football data tools and stats sites in 2026

FBref after losing Opta data, Understat, Sofascore, FotMob, StatsBomb open data and more: the 10 football stats sites worth knowing in 2026, free and paid.

ToolsData

Tactical analysis board with match data for a football game

25 September 20268 min read

xG vs traditional football predictions: what's the difference?

Bookmaker odds, gut feeling, cumulative xG: three readings of the same match, three opposite conclusions. Why xG often predicts better, and where it fails.

xGPredictions

Tactical blackboard with a diagram of shots and positions

22 May 202611 min read

xG (expected goals): understanding modern football's flagship stat in 2026

The complete explainer on expected goals: definition, how it's computed, why it's more predictive than the raw scoreline, and the pitfalls to avoid. For beginners and analysts alike.

DataExplainer