The AFCON 2027 qualifiers kicked off on 24 September 2026. 48 national teams, split into 12 groups of 4, are chasing 21 tickets for a finals tournament hosted by Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania from 19 June to 17 July 2027. Matchdays 1 and 2 are played during this international window (until 6 October), with the rest to follow in November 2026 and March 2027.
In this guide you'll find every fixture of the current window with kick-off times for West and East Africa, the make-up of all 12 groups, the special rule in the host nations' groups (the one that changes everything for Nigeria and South Africa) and a method for reading these matches with data rather than gut feeling.
How the AFCON 2027 qualifiers work
The Confederation of African Football (CAF) has set a simple format:
- 12 groups of 4 teams, played home and away: each side plays 6 matches.
- The top two in each group qualify directly for the finals.
- Exception: the three host nations' groups. Kenya (Group D), Uganda (Group H) and Tanzania (Group L) qualify automatically as co-hosts. In those three groups, only one other team goes through: the best-placed of the three other nations, wherever the host finishes.
- The result: 9 groups × 2 qualifiers + 3 groups × 1 qualifier = 21 qualifiers, who join the 3 hosts for a 24-team finals.
Before this group stage, a preliminary round was played in March 2026. Burundi, Ethiopia, Eritrea (who knocked out Eswatini), Lesotho, South Sudan and Somalia (on penalties against Mauritius) came through it to complete the field of 48.
The international windows
| Matchdays | Period (CAF window) |
|---|---|
| Matchdays 1 and 2 | 21 September to 6 October 2026 |
| Matchdays 3 and 4 | 9 to 17 November 2026 |
| Matchdays 5 and 6 | 22 to 30 March 2027 |
| Finals (24 teams) | 19 June to 17 July 2027 |
The 12 qualifying groups
| Group | Teams |
|---|---|
| A | Morocco, Gabon, Niger, Lesotho |
| B | Egypt, Angola, Malawi, South Sudan |
| C | Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Gambia, Somalia |
| D | South Africa, Guinea, Kenya (host), Eritrea |
| E | DR Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe |
| F | Burkina Faso, Benin, Mauritania, Central African Republic |
| G | Cameroon, Comoros, Namibia, Congo |
| H | Tunisia, Uganda (host), Libya, Botswana |
| I | Algeria, Zambia, Togo, Burundi |
| J | Senegal, Mozambique, Sudan, Ethiopia |
| K | Mali, Cape Verde, Rwanda, Liberia |
| L | Nigeria, Madagascar, Tanzania (host), Guinea-Bissau |
Fixtures for this window (matchdays 1 and 2)
Kick-off times are given in GMT (Accra, Freetown, Monrovia, Banjul), Lagos time (WAT, GMT+1, also Kinshasa and Douala) and Nairobi time (EAT, GMT+3, also Kampala and Dar es Salaam). For Johannesburg, Lusaka or Harare, add 2 hours to GMT; in the UK (BST until 25 October), kick-off is at the same time as in Lagos. Dates and times can still change: always check before kick-off. Scores as of the morning of 25 September 2026.
Matchday 1
| Date | GMT | Lagos | Nairobi | Group | Fixture | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 24 Sep | 13:00 | 14:00 | 16:00 | G | Namibia v Congo | 1-0 |
| Thu 24 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | E | DR Congo v Equatorial Guinea | 2-0 |
| Thu 24 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | F | Mauritania v Central African Rep. | 3-1 |
| Thu 24 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | H | Libya v Botswana | 2-2 |
| Thu 24 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | C | Côte d'Ivoire v Ghana | 2-0 |
| Thu 24 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | E | Sierra Leone v Zimbabwe | 2-3 |
| Thu 24 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | G | Cameroon v Comoros | 3-1 |
| Thu 24 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | H | Tunisia v Uganda | 1-1 |
| Fri 25 Sep | 13:00 | 14:00 | 16:00 | J | Mozambique v Senegal | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 13:00 | 14:00 | 16:00 | J | Sudan v Ethiopia | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 13:00 | 14:00 | 16:00 | L | Tanzania v Guinea-Bissau | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 15:00 | 16:00 | 18:00 | A | Niger v Lesotho | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | B | Malawi v South Sudan | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | C | Gambia v Somalia | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | I | Togo v Burundi | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | K | Rwanda v Liberia | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | L | Nigeria v Madagascar | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | A | Morocco v Gabon | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | B | Egypt v Angola | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | F | Burkina Faso v Benin | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | I | Algeria v Zambia | — |
| Fri 25 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | K | Mali v Cape Verde | — |
| Sat 26 Sep | 13:00 | 14:00 | 16:00 | D | Kenya v Eritrea | — |
| Sat 26 Sep | 13:00 | 14:00 | 16:00 | D | South Africa v Guinea | — |
Matchday 2
| Date | GMT | Lagos | Nairobi | Group | Fixture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 28 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | E | Equatorial Guinea v Sierra Leone |
| Mon 28 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | E | Zimbabwe v DR Congo |
| Mon 28 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | F | Central African Rep. v Burkina Faso |
| Mon 28 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | H | Botswana v Tunisia |
| Tue 29 Sep | 11:00 | 12:00 | 14:00 | G | Comoros v Namibia |
| Tue 29 Sep | 13:00 | 14:00 | 16:00 | A | Lesotho v Morocco |
| Tue 29 Sep | 13:00 | 14:00 | 16:00 | B | South Sudan v Egypt |
| Tue 29 Sep | 13:00 | 14:00 | 16:00 | I | Burundi v Algeria |
| Tue 29 Sep | 13:00 | 14:00 | 16:00 | J | Ethiopia v Senegal |
| Tue 29 Sep | 13:00 | 14:00 | 16:00 | J | Mozambique v Sudan |
| Tue 29 Sep | 13:00 | 14:00 | 16:00 | L | Madagascar v Tanzania |
| Tue 29 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | C | Ghana v Gambia |
| Tue 29 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | H | Uganda v Libya |
| Tue 29 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | I | Zambia v Togo |
| Tue 29 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | K | Cape Verde v Rwanda |
| Tue 29 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | L | Guinea-Bissau v Nigeria |
| Tue 29 Sep | 17:00 | 18:00 | 20:00 | F | Benin v Mauritania |
| Tue 29 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | A | Gabon v Niger |
| Tue 29 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | C | Somalia v Côte d'Ivoire |
| Tue 29 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | G | Congo v Cameroon |
| Tue 29 Sep | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | K | Liberia v Mali |
| Wed 30 Sep | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | D | Eritrea v South Africa |
| Thu 1 Oct | 16:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 | D | Guinea v Kenya |
| Tue 6 Oct | 19:00 | 20:00 | 22:00 | B | Angola v Malawi |
What's at stake for the English-speaking nations
Six matches is a short campaign: one slip at home costs dearly. Here's what to watch, without reading more into the facts than they allow.
Nigeria (Group L): one ticket for three
This is the great quirk of these qualifiers. In the three host groups, finishing second behind the host can be enough… but finishing second behind anyone else is not.
The Super Eagles, three-time champions of Africa (1980, 1994, 2013) and runners-up at the 2023 edition, must finish above Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau. One place for three teams: every point dropped against those two weighs heavily. The games against Tanzania, already qualified, count in the table, but the stakes aren't the same for the Taifa Stars. Nigeria open at home to Madagascar on 25 September, then travel to Guinea-Bissau on the 29th.
South Africa (Group D): a head-to-head straight away
Bafana Bafana, champions in 1996 on home soil, face Guinea on matchday 1 (26 September) in what looks, on paper, like a direct fight for the only ticket on offer, with Eritrea lurking. That opening game could already weigh very heavily. Kenya, co-hosts and already qualified, begin at home to Eritrea the same day, then visit Guinea on 1 October: the Harambee Stars can shape this group without anything at stake for themselves.
Ghana (Group C): two giants, two places
Two places for two nations with seven continental titles between them: four for Ghana, three for Côte d'Ivoire (including the 2023 edition on home soil). Côte d'Ivoire took the first leg 2-0 on 24 September. On paper, both remain favourites ahead of Gambia and Somalia, but the return fixture could decide first place. The Black Stars host Gambia on 29 September.
Uganda (Group H): the Cranes play spoiler
Already qualified as co-hosts, Uganda drew 1-1 in Tunisia on matchday 1, while Libya and Botswana shared a 2-2. With only one ticket for Tunisia, Libya and Botswana, every point Uganda take off their rivals reshapes the race. Uganda host Libya on 29 September.
Tanzania (Group L): no pressure, real influence
The Taifa Stars are already at the finals, but their six matches count for everyone else. They start at home to Guinea-Bissau on 25 September, then visit Madagascar: two of Nigeria's direct rivals.
Zambia (Group I): straight into the big one
Zambia, champions in 2012, open away to Algeria, two-time champions of Africa, on 25 September, then host Togo. With two tickets available and Burundi completing the group, this is a classic two-horse race on paper, but four days apart, those first two games matter.
Other groups to follow
- Group E: DR Congo started well (2-0 against Equatorial Guinea) before travelling to Zimbabwe, who won 3-2 away to Sierra Leone.
- Group G: Cameroon, five-time champions, beat Comoros 3-1 and Namibia beat Congo 1-0. Congo v Cameroon on 29 September is already a big date.
- Group B: Egypt, record seven-time champions, start against Angola, with Malawi hosting South Sudan.
- Group J: Senegal, 2021 champions (they also won the 2025 final on the pitch, but CAF's appeal board awarded the title to Morocco by forfeit in March 2026, a decision Senegal is challenging at the Court of Arbitration for Sport), open with two away trips (Mozambique, then Ethiopia).
- Group K: Mali v Cape Verde on matchday 1 is a genuine six-pointer for the top two places, with Rwanda and Liberia also in the mix.
- Group A: Morocco host Gabon on 25 September before a trip to Lesotho.
How to predict an AFCON qualifier with data
International matches are harder to read than club games: few fixtures a year, squads that change from one window to the next, sometimes long journeys, and "home" games played away from home. According to the fixture list, Namibia hosted Congo in Gaborone (Botswana), Mauritania and Niger host in Casablanca, Sierra Leone in El Jadida and Lesotho in Bloemfontein. Here's a four-step method, built on the same statistical logic as our predictions (expected goals + the Poisson distribution), that you can reproduce.
1. Start from expected goals, not reputations
The "big nation = easy win" reflex is expensive. What counts is the real ability to create and concede chances, measured by expected goals (xG) where they're available, otherwise by recent goals scored and conceded. That lets you estimate how many goals each team should score in this specific match.
2. Turn those expected goals into probabilities
With the Poisson distribution, those goal averages become probabilities for every scoreline, then for each 1X2 outcome (win, draw, loss). That's the basis of any honest prediction: a distribution adding up to 100%, not a "100% sure" tip. We walk through the calculation step by step in our guide on how to predict a correct score.
3. Adjust for context
- Where the match is really played: a relocated game on neutral ground wipes out part of home advantage.
- Absentees: a first-choice striker ruled out lowers his team's expected goals. See our guide to reading team news.
- The schedule: two matches in a few days, sometimes with long travel in between.
- The maths of the table: in single-ticket groups, a draw can be as bad as a defeat.
4. Accept the uncertainty
Even a clear favourite doesn't win every time. A team given a 65% chance of winning loses or draws roughly one time in three. The correct score is the most uncertain outcome of all: the most likely one rarely goes above 15% (we explain why in sure correct score predictions: do they really exist?).
Where to find AI predictions for these matches
Every qualifier has its own free AI prediction (1X2 probabilities and most likely score) on the AFCON 2027 qualifiers predictions page, and today's selection is on football predictions today. All other competitions are on AI football predictions. To see how we build a prediction, from raw data to probabilities, read our methodology or our page on AI football match analysis.
Want to try it on a real match? Your first full prediction is free, no card needed.
Responsible gambling. Elofoot's predictions are statistical estimates, not certainties or betting advice. Betting is for adults only (18 or over, and older in some countries) and carries real risks: debt, dependency, isolation. Never stake money you need and never chase losses. If gambling stops being fun, talk to someone you trust or a local support service.
Frequently asked questions
How many teams qualify for AFCON 2027?
24 teams will play at the finals: the 3 hosts (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania), who qualify automatically, and 21 teams from the qualifiers. The top two in each group qualify, except in Groups D, H and L, where only the best non-host team earns a ticket.
When are the AFCON 2027 qualifiers played?
Matchdays 1 and 2 are played in the 21 September to 6 October 2026 window, matchdays 3 and 4 from 9 to 17 November 2026, and matchdays 5 and 6 from 22 to 30 March 2027.
When and where is AFCON 2027?
The finals are scheduled for 19 June to 17 July 2027, in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. It's the first AFCON jointly hosted by three countries.
Why is Nigeria in a "one-ticket" group?
Because Tanzania, one of the hosts, was drawn in Group L. Already qualified, Tanzania play their matches as normal, but only one of the other three (Nigeria, Madagascar, Guinea-Bissau) will reach the finals: whichever finishes highest.
Can you predict a qualifier with certainty?
No. No method, human or AI, can guarantee a result. A good prediction gives consistent probabilities and explains the factors in the match. It's a tool for reading the game, not a promise of winnings.
