1X2 (match result)
1X2 refers to the three outcomes of a football match: 1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win. A 1X2 prediction gives the probability of each; coherent probabilities must always add up to 100%.
It's the simplest and most-followed market. The challenge isn't naming a favourite but correctly weighting the draw - often underrated - and producing probabilities that sum to exactly 100%, which many tips fail to do.
In French-speaking countries it is often written « 1N2 » (N for « nul », draw): it is exactly the same market. 1X2 is settled on normal time, stoppage time included: extra time and penalty shoot-outs don't count. In a knockout tie, a 1-1 after 90 minutes therefore settles as a draw, even if one team goes through afterwards.
A 1X2 probability converts into a « fair » price by taking its inverse: 50% corresponds to odds of 2.00. A bookmaker’s odds include a margin, so their implied probabilities add up to more than 100%. Comparing the two shows whether a price looks generous, without ever turning a probability into a certainty: a 60% favourite still fails to win 4 times in 10.
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A 1X2 prediction might read 52% (1) / 26% (X) / 22% (2): home favourite, but the draw stays plausible.
How Elofoot uses it
Elofoot computes 1X2 with a Poisson model: expected goals taken from each team's recent xG, adjusted for league position, form, division strength and home advantage, then a scoreline grid from 0 to 10 goals. For big matches, when a Polymarket market is liquid enough, the result blends 65% market and 35% model. The displayed percentages add up to exactly 100% and the leading outcome is capped at 95%.
Betting involves risks: losing money, debt, addiction. Betting is for adults only. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. Elofoot is a data analysis tool: it takes no bets and no prediction is guaranteed.
Frequently asked questions
- What does 1N2 mean in football?
- 1N2 is the French name for 1X2: 1 = home win, N (« nul ») = draw, 2 = away win. It is widely used in France and French-speaking Africa.
- Does 1X2 include extra time and penalties?
- No. 1X2 is settled at the end of normal time, stoppage time included. A draw after 90 minutes remains an « X », whoever wins in extra time or on penalties.
- How do you turn a 1X2 probability into odds?
- Take the inverse of the probability: 52% gives fair odds of 1 / 0.52 ≈ 1.92. A bookmaker’s price is usually lower because it includes a margin.
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