Football prediction glossary
xG, 1X2, Asian handicap, value bet, correct score, Poisson distribution… Here are the terms of football prediction, match analysis and betting, in plain language. Each definition gets to the point, with a worked example.
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Predict a match for freeBetting and odds
Match markets, odds and bet types, explained without jargon - risks included. · 21 definitions
1X2 (match result)
1X2 refers to the three outcomes of a football match: 1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win. A 1X2 prediction gives the probability of each; coherent probabilities must always add up to 100%.
Accumulator (acca)
An accumulator puts several selections on one bet slip; it only wins if every selection wins. The odds multiply, but so do the probabilities: three selections at 60% each have only a 21.6% chance of all coming in.
Anytime goalscorer
An anytime goalscorer bet wins if the chosen player scores at least one goal during the match, whatever the minute or the number of goals. As a rule, own goals don’t count and only normal time is taken into account.
Asian handicap
The Asian handicap is a two-way bet that removes the draw: one team gets a goal head start or deficit (0, -0.5, -1, -0.25…). Depending on the line, the stake can be won, lost, refunded, or half won / half refunded.
Bankroll (staking)
A bankroll is the money a bettor sets aside for betting only, kept separate from everyday finances. Bankroll management sets each stake as a share of that pot, often 1 to 2%, so that losing runs can be absorbed without wiping it out.
Bookmaker's margin
The bookmaker's margin (or overround) is the commission built into the odds. You work it out by adding up the implied probabilities of every outcome (1 ÷ odds) and subtracting 100%: on a 1X2 market, a total of 104.8% means a 4.8% margin.
BTTS (both teams to score)
BTTS (Both Teams To Score) is a yes/no market: do both teams each score at least one goal in the match? « Yes » wins as soon as both teams find the net (e.g. 2-1, 1-1); « No » otherwise (e.g. 2-0, 0-0).
Cash out
Cash out is an option some bookmakers offer to settle a bet before the match ends, in exchange for an amount fixed on the spot. That amount depends on the current odds and includes a margin: it is usually slightly below the bet’s « fair » value.
Correct score
The correct score is the prediction of a match's precise scoreline (e.g. 2-1). It's the hardest outcome to forecast in football: dozens of scores are possible, each unlikely. So you aim for the MOST likely score, never a certainty.
Double chance
Double chance covers two of the three 1X2 outcomes in a single bet: 1X (home or draw), X2 (away or draw) or 12 (either, no draw). You win if either covered outcome happens - so more often, but at a lower price.
Draw no bet
Draw no bet (DNB) is a bet on one team to win in which a draw simply returns the stake. You win if your team wins, get your money back on a draw, and lose if it is beaten.
European handicap
A European handicap is a 1X2 bet played on an adjusted score: a whole number of goals is taken from (or given to) one team before reading the result. With a -1 handicap, the favourite must win by at least 2 goals; a one-goal win produces a « handicap draw ».
First goalscorer
A first goalscorer bet wins if the chosen player scores the very first goal of the match. It is much harder than anytime goalscorer: the player has to score, and before anyone else. A « no goalscorer » option covers a 0-0.
Half-time/full-time
The half-time/full-time bet (HT/FT) means predicting both the result at the break and the final result, among 9 combinations (1/1, X/1, 2/2…). « X/1 » means: level at half-time, then a home win at the final whistle.
Implied probability
Implied probability is the probability that a set of odds suggests. You compute it by dividing 1 by the decimal odds: odds of 2.00 imply 50%, odds of 4.00 imply 25%. It lets you compare odds to your own estimate to spot a value bet.
In-play betting
In-play (live) betting means placing bets during the match, on odds that move in real time with the score, the time left and events (goals, red cards, injuries). Prices shift very quickly, and bookmakers’ margins are often higher than before kick-off.
Odds
Odds are the multiplier a bookmaker applies to your stake if the bet wins. In decimal format, odds of 2.50 return 2.50 times the stake (stake included): a £10 bet returns £25, i.e. £15 net profit. They also express an implied probability: 1 ÷ odds.
Over/Under (total goals)
Over/Under is about the total number of goals in the match, compared to a line (most common: 2.5). « Over 2.5 » wins with 3 goals or more; « Under 2.5 » wins with 2 goals or fewer. The .5 line avoids any push on the market.
Single bet
A single bet is a bet on one selection only: one outcome of one match (home win, draw, over 2.5 goals…). It wins if that selection comes in, and the return is stake × odds. It is the easiest type of bet to read, with a single margin and a single risk.
System bet
A system bet splits several selections into every combination of a given size, each placed as a separate bet. A 2/3 system turns three selections into three doubles: you can still get a return if one selection loses, at the cost of a larger total stake.
Value bet
A value bet is a situation where the true probability of an outcome is higher than the one implied by the offered odds. In other words, the market underrates the event. It's the foundation of a rational approach: not to « win often », but to bet when the odds are too generous.
Statistics
The numbers that really describe a match: xG, shots on target, possession, form… · 10 definitions
Assist
An assist is the final pass (or last deliberate touch) by a player that directly allows a team-mate to score. It is recorded in individual statistics, alongside goals, to measure a player's attacking contribution.
Clean sheet
A clean sheet is a match in which a team concedes no goals. It's a key marker of defensive solidity: a clean sheet is credited to the team (and often the goalkeeper) that finishes without conceding, regardless of how many goals it scores itself.
Corner kick
A corner kick is awarded to the attacking team when the ball wholly crosses the goal line, without a goal being scored, having last touched a player of the defending team. It is taken from the corner arc at the corner of the pitch.
Head-to-head (H2H)
H2H (head-to-head) is the history of matches between the same two teams: who won, the scores, recurring patterns. It helps spot matchup dynamics that overall stats hide - a team that consistently does well against another.
Possession
Possession is the share of a match during which a team has the ball, expressed as a percentage: 60% against 40%, for example. Depending on the statistics provider, it is calculated from the time each team controls the ball or from each team’s share of the passes.
Recent form
Recent form is a team's run of results over its latest matches, usually the last 5, written W (win), D (draw) and L (loss). « WWDLW » means three wins, a draw and a defeat: a shorthand for judging a team's current momentum.
Shots on target
A shot on target is an attempt that would have ended up in the net without the intervention of the goalkeeper (or a last defender on the line). Goals count as shots on target; a shot that hits the post or bar without going in, or goes wide, is not on target.
xA (Expected Assists)
xA, or « expected assists », measures the quality of the passes that lead to a shot: each pass is given the xG value of the shot it sets up, i.e. the probability that it becomes an assist. A player’s total xA estimates how many assists he « should » have provided.
xG (Expected Goals)
xG, or « expected goals », measures the quality of a chance: the probability that a given shot ends up in the net, between 0 and 1, based on distance, angle, body part and type of play. A team's total xG over a match estimates how many goals it « should » have scored.
Yellow and red cards
A card is the disciplinary sanction shown by the referee to a player: yellow is a caution, red an immediate sending-off. Two yellow cards in the same match mean a red: the player leaves the pitch and his team finishes with ten men.
Game and tactics
Pressing, low block, penalties, extra time… the concepts of the pitch and the rules. · 7 definitions
Comeback (remontada)
A remontada is the turnaround of a match or two-legged tie that looked lost, by overturning a deficit of several goals. The Spanish word caught on after Barcelona beat PSG 6-1 on 8 March 2017, having lost the first leg 4-0.
Counter-attack
A counter-attack is a fast attack launched straight after winning the ball back, to exploit the opponent’s imbalance before they can recover their shape. It relies on speed, few passes and very direct play towards goal.
Extra time
Extra time is an additional period of two halves of 15 minutes, played when a knockout match is level after normal time. If it is still level, the winner is decided by a penalty shoot-out.
Low block
A low block is a defensive set-up in which a team drops its lines close to its own penalty area, stays very compact and concedes possession to shut down space, before looking to break on the counter-attack.
Penalty kick
A penalty kick is awarded when a player commits, inside their own penalty area, an offence punishable by a direct free kick. It is taken 11 metres (12 yards) from goal with only the goalkeeper to beat, and is converted around 75–80% of the time.
Penalty shoot-out
A penalty shoot-out decides between two teams still level at the end of a knockout match, usually after extra time. Each team takes five kicks, alternately; if it is still level, it goes to sudden death, one kick at a time.
Pressing
Pressing means hunting down the opponent in possession to win the ball back quickly, ideally high up the pitch. It is often measured with PPDA: the number of opposition passes allowed per defensive action in a given zone. The lower the PPDA, the more intense the press.
Models and AI
Probabilities, the Poisson distribution, the Elo model: how data becomes a prediction. · 6 definitions
Elo rating system
The Elo rating system is a ranking method created by Arpad Elo for chess: each team has a number of points, the gap between two teams gives the expected result of their match, and after every game the points are updated according to the difference between the actual and the expected result.
Football tip
A tip is an opinion on how a match will end, usually a firm call such as « Team A to win », « over 2.5 goals » or « 2-1 ». It differs from a probabilistic prediction, which puts a figure on the chances of every outcome instead of picking just one.
Home advantage
Home advantage is the extra performance a team gets from playing at its own ground: the crowd, no travel, familiarity with the pitch. In the major leagues, the home side wins around 45% of matches, against barely 30% for the visitors.
Poisson distribution
The Poisson distribution is a probability law that gives the chance of observing 0, 1, 2… rare events when their average is known. In football, it works out the probability of each number of goals for a team from its expected goals (λ), and from there the probability of every exact score.
Prediction
A match prediction is a numerical estimate of what may happen: the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win (1X2), the most likely score, the chances of both teams scoring or of more than 2.5 goals. Unlike a tip, it doesn't pick a side: it measures uncertainty.
Probability
A probability measures how likely an event is, from 0% (impossible) to 100% (certain). In football, the probabilities of a match’s three outcomes (home win, draw, away win) add up to 100%. A reliable probability is calibrated: what is rated at 70% happens about 7 times in 10.