Football prediction glossary
xG, 1X2, BTTS, value bet, correct score… Here are all the terms of football match prediction and analysis, in plain language. Each definition gets to the point, with a concrete example.
xG (Expected Goals)
xG, or « expected goals », measures the quality of a chance: the probability that a given shot ends up in the net, between 0 and 1, based on distance, angle, body part and type of play. A team's total xG over a match estimates how many goals it « should » have scored.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 refers to the three outcomes of a football match: 1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win. A 1X2 prediction gives the probability of each; coherent probabilities must always add up to 100%.
BTTS (both teams to score)
BTTS (Both Teams To Score) is a yes/no market: do both teams each score at least one goal in the match? « Yes » wins as soon as both teams find the net (e.g. 2-1, 1-1); « No » otherwise (e.g. 2-0, 0-0).
Value bet
A value bet is a situation where the true probability of an outcome is higher than the one implied by the offered odds. In other words, the market underrates the event. It's the foundation of a rational approach: not to « win often », but to bet when the odds are too generous.
Implied probability
Implied probability is the probability that a set of odds suggests. You compute it by dividing 1 by the decimal odds: odds of 2.00 imply 50%, odds of 4.00 imply 25%. It lets you compare odds to your own estimate to spot a value bet.
Double chance
Double chance covers two of the three 1X2 outcomes in a single bet: 1X (home or draw), X2 (away or draw) or 12 (either, no draw). You win if either covered outcome happens — so more often, but at a lower price.
Over/Under (total goals)
Over/Under is about the total number of goals in the match, compared to a line (most common: 2.5). « Over 2.5 » wins with 3 goals or more; « Under 2.5 » wins with 2 goals or fewer. The .5 line avoids any push on the market.
Clean sheet
A clean sheet is a match in which a team concedes no goals. It's a key marker of defensive solidity: a clean sheet is credited to the team (and often the goalkeeper) that finishes without conceding, regardless of how many goals it scores itself.
Head-to-head (H2H)
H2H (head-to-head) is the history of matches between the same two teams: who won, the scores, recurring patterns. It helps spot matchup dynamics that overall stats hide — a team that consistently does well against another.
Correct score
The correct score is the prediction of a match's precise scoreline (e.g. 2-1). It's the hardest outcome to forecast in football: dozens of scores are possible, each unlikely. So you aim for the MOST likely score, never a certainty.