First goalscorer
A first goalscorer bet wins if the chosen player scores the very first goal of the match. It is much harder than anytime goalscorer: the player has to score, and before anyone else. A « no goalscorer » option covers a 0-0.
The first goal can come from either side and from any player. The probability of being the first goalscorer is therefore always much lower than that of scoring anytime, and the odds are much longer. Even the best striker in a favoured team rarely opens the scoring in more than one match in four.
A simple approximation: P(first goalscorer) ≈ (player’s expected goals ÷ match expected goals) × P(at least one goal in the match). Each goal has a chance proportional to the player’s share of being his, provided there is at least one goal.
Special cases are settled according to the operator’s rules. With most of them, an own goal doesn’t count: if the first goal is an own goal, the next scorer is used instead. A player who comes on after the first goal is often refunded, and a 0-0 wins the « no goalscorer » option. Because it fails most of the time, this bet should never involve more than you can afford to lose.
Example
A striker on 0.45 expected goals, in a match with 2.6 expected goals in total: he scores anytime in about 36% of cases, but is first goalscorer in only (0.45 / 2.6) × (1 − e^(−2.6)) ≈ 16% of cases. The 0-0 (« no goalscorer ») accounts for about 7%.
How Elofoot uses it
In Elofoot's AI analysis, the first goalscorer probability is derived on the server from each player's « anytime » scoring probability; it is never chosen by the AI.
Betting involves risks: losing money, debt, addiction. Betting is for adults only. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. Elofoot is a data analysis tool: it takes no bets and no prediction is guaranteed.
Frequently asked questions
- What happens if the first goal is an own goal?
- With most operators the own goal is ignored and the first goalscorer is whoever scores the next goal. Rules vary, though, so check the operator’s terms.
- What happens if the match ends 0-0?
- No first goalscorer bet on a player wins. Only the « no goalscorer » option, where offered, is a winner.
- Why are first goalscorer odds so high?
- Because the player has to score before the 21 other players on the pitch. A striker who scores in a third of matches opens the scoring in only a much smaller share of them.
See also
Go further
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