Anytime goalscorer
An anytime goalscorer bet wins if the chosen player scores at least one goal during the match, whatever the minute or the number of goals. As a rule, own goals don’t count and only normal time is taken into account.
It is the most popular player market. One goal is enough: a brace or a hat-trick pays no more on this bet. Penalties count, own goals don’t (they aren’t credited to any scorer on the team that benefits). Goals scored in extra time or in a penalty shoot-out are usually excluded.
What happens if the player doesn’t play depends on the operator’s rules: the stake is often refunded if he takes no part in the match at all, whereas a substitute who comes on, even for a few minutes, counts as having played. Checking these conditions before betting avoids unpleasant surprises.
To estimate the probability, you start from the player’s expected goals in the match (his share of the team’s xG, linked to his position, shots and playing time). With a Poisson distribution, P(scoring at least once) = 1 − e^(−player’s expected goals). Even a top centre-forward rarely goes above 50% in a single match: no scorer is ever « certain », and combining several scorers multiplies the risk.
Example
A striker credited with 0.45 expected goals in the match has a probability of scoring of about 1 − e^(−0.45) ≈ 36%. Odds of 2.75 correspond to an implied probability of 1 / 2.75 ≈ 36.4%: the two are very close.
How Elofoot uses it
In Elofoot's AI analysis, each scorer's « anytime » probability is calculated on the server, not by the AI: the Polymarket « anytime goalscorer » price when one exists, otherwise a share of the team's xG split according to players' actual goals, assists and position. Injured or suspended players are left out.
Betting involves risks: losing money, debt, addiction. Betting is for adults only. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. Elofoot is a data analysis tool: it takes no bets and no prediction is guaranteed.
Frequently asked questions
- Does an own goal count for an anytime goalscorer bet?
- Usually not: an own goal isn’t credited to any player on the team that benefits, so it doesn’t settle any goalscorer bet. The exact rules depend on the operator.
- What happens if my goalscorer doesn’t play?
- Depending on the operator’s rules, the stake is often refunded if the player takes no part in the match. If he comes on, even late, the bet stands.
- What is the difference between anytime and first goalscorer?
- Anytime goalscorer wins if the player scores at least once in the match. First goalscorer requires him to score the very first goal: that is much rarer, so it pays more.
See also
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