Implied probability
Implied probability is the probability that a set of odds suggests. You compute it by dividing 1 by the decimal odds: odds of 2.00 imply 50%, odds of 4.00 imply 25%. It lets you compare odds to your own estimate to spot a value bet.
Converting odds into a probability is the basic reflex for judging a bet: instead of looking at the potential payout, you ask whether the outcome really has as much chance of happening as the price suggests. Odds of 1.25 imply 80%, odds of 5.00 imply 20%.
The implied probabilities of a match's three outcomes sum to more than 100%: the excess is the bookmaker's margin (the « vig » or overround). Each raw implied probability is therefore slightly inflated. To get a « clean » estimate, you divide each one by the total so that they add up to 100% again.
Implied probability doesn't tell the truth about the match: it sums up the market's view, plus the margin. It is still a useful benchmark, because a liquid market pools a lot of information. It is also why a prediction whose probabilities add up to exactly 100% is easier to read than raw odds: there is nothing to strip out before comparing.
Example
Odds 2.50 → implied probability = 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40%.
How Elofoot uses it
Elofoot shows probabilities directly, with no margin: the 1X2 percentages are whole numbers that add up to exactly 100%. When a Polymarket market (a real-money prediction market) is liquid enough, its 1X2 counts for 65% and the Poisson model for 35%; otherwise, the model stands alone. These probabilities can serve as a point of comparison with the implied probability of a price.
Betting involves risks: losing money, debt, addiction. Betting is for adults only. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. Elofoot is a data analysis tool: it takes no bets and no prediction is guaranteed.
Frequently asked questions
- How do you convert odds into a percentage?
- Divide 1 by the decimal odds, then multiply by 100. Odds of 1.80 correspond to 1 ÷ 1.80 ≈ 55.6%.
- Why do implied probabilities add up to more than 100%?
- Because the bookmaker builds its margin into the odds. The excess above 100% is its commission, not an extra chance.
- How do you remove the margin from implied probabilities?
- The simplest method is to divide each implied probability by their sum. The three outcomes then add back up to 100%.
See also
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