Penalty shoot-out
A penalty shoot-out decides between two teams still level at the end of a knockout match, usually after extra time. Each team takes five kicks, alternately; if it is still level, it goes to sudden death, one kick at a time.
A shoot-out is not part of the match itself: it only decides who goes through or who lifts the cup. The official score remains the one at the end of normal time or extra time, and the shoot-out is recorded separately, for example « 1-1, won 4-3 on penalties ». Only players on the pitch at the end of the match may take a kick, and none may take a second one until all eligible team-mates have taken theirs.
How it works: a coin toss decides which goal is used, and a second toss gives one team the choice of kicking first or second. Each team takes five kicks, alternately, and the shoot-out stops as soon as one side can no longer be caught. If still level after five kicks each, it goes to sudden death. Unlike a penalty in open play, there is no follow-up: if the goalkeeper saves it or it comes back off the woodwork without going in, the kick is missed.
Shoot-outs are highly uncertain. Some studies have suggested an advantage for the team kicking first, others have found no clear effect: the question is still debated. For a prediction, it is sensible to treat a shoot-out as close to a coin flip, slightly shaped by the quality of the takers and the goalkeeper, fatigue and pressure.
Example
The 2022 World Cup final, Argentina v France: 2-2 at the end of normal time, 3-3 after extra time, then 4-2 to Argentina on penalties. In 1X2 terms, settled on 90 minutes, the match is a draw, even though Argentina won the title.
How Elofoot uses it
Elofoot calculates the 1X2 over 90 minutes, where the draw is a genuine outcome. When the score chosen by the AI analysis leads to a tie in a knockout match (a draw in a single-leg tie, or a level aggregate in a second leg), the scenario gives a shoot-out score and the team going through, generally the 1X2 favourite. The shoot-out itself is not modelled kick by kick.
Frequently asked questions
- How many kicks does each team take in a shoot-out?
- Five each, alternately. If it is still level after five kicks, the shoot-out goes to sudden death until one team scores and the other misses in the same round.
- Do shoot-out goals count in the match score?
- No. The official score is the one at the end of the match, extra time included. The shoot-out is shown separately and counts neither for the 90-minute 1X2 nor for the number of goals.
- Does the team kicking first have an advantage?
- Some studies have suggested so, others found no significant effect. The subject is still debated: there is no solid consensus.
See also
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