Recent form
Recent form is a team's run of results over its latest matches, usually the last 5, written W (win), D (draw) and L (loss). « WWDLW » means three wins, a draw and a defeat: a shorthand for judging a team's current momentum.
Form captures what the league table, which accumulates the whole season, smooths out: a team that has just changed manager or got its injured players back, or one that keeps underperforming. It is read as letters (W/D/L) or as points: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, so a maximum of 15 points over 5 matches. Depending on the site, the most recent match sits at the left or the right of the sequence.
It always needs context. Five wins against bottom-half sides are not worth as much as three draws against the best teams; a match played with ten men for an hour or a congested fixture list also muddy the picture. Home and away form should be separated, and the manner matters: a winning run built on few chances (low xG) is unlikely to last.
Over five matches the sample is small and luck weighs heavily. That is why a sound model gives form a moderate weight, alongside steadier measures such as xG and league position, rather than making it the main criterion.
Example
Run « WWDLW »: 3 wins × 3 points + 1 draw × 1 point + 1 defeat × 0 points = 10 points out of a possible 15, i.e. 67% of the points and an average of 2 points per game.
How Elofoot uses it
Elofoot's Poisson model includes recent form as a multiplier: the run of latest matches is converted into points (3 per win, 1 per draw), then scaled between 0.85 (all defeats) and 1.15 (all wins). A « WWDLW » run (10 points out of 15) gives 0.85 + 0.30 × 10/15 = 1.05. This factor is combined with league position and division strength to adjust each team's expected goals.
Frequently asked questions
- How do you read a « WWDLW » form guide?
- Each letter is a match: W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Depending on the site, the most recent match comes first or last, so check the key.
- How many matches is form measured over?
- Usually the last 5, across all competitions or per competition depending on the source. Some analysts also look at the last 10 to smooth out luck.
- Does form matter more than league position?
- No, the two complement each other. League position sums up the whole season, form the current momentum; over 5 matches, the fixture list and luck weigh heavily.
See also
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