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Recent form

Recent form is a team's run of results over its latest matches, usually the last 5, written W (win), D (draw) and L (loss). « WWDLW » means three wins, a draw and a defeat: a shorthand for judging a team's current momentum.

Form captures what the league table, which accumulates the whole season, smooths out: a team that has just changed manager or got its injured players back, or one that keeps underperforming. It is read as letters (W/D/L) or as points: 3 for a win, 1 for a draw, so a maximum of 15 points over 5 matches. Depending on the site, the most recent match sits at the left or the right of the sequence.

It always needs context. Five wins against bottom-half sides are not worth as much as three draws against the best teams; a match played with ten men for an hour or a congested fixture list also muddy the picture. Home and away form should be separated, and the manner matters: a winning run built on few chances (low xG) is unlikely to last.

Over five matches the sample is small and luck weighs heavily. That is why a sound model gives form a moderate weight, alongside steadier measures such as xG and league position, rather than making it the main criterion.

Example

Run « WWDLW »: 3 wins × 3 points + 1 draw × 1 point + 1 defeat × 0 points = 10 points out of a possible 15, i.e. 67% of the points and an average of 2 points per game.

How Elofoot uses it

Elofoot's Poisson model includes recent form as a multiplier: the run of latest matches is converted into points (3 per win, 1 per draw), then scaled between 0.85 (all defeats) and 1.15 (all wins). A « WWDLW » run (10 points out of 15) gives 0.85 + 0.30 × 10/15 = 1.05. This factor is combined with league position and division strength to adjust each team's expected goals.

Frequently asked questions

How do you read a « WWDLW » form guide?
Each letter is a match: W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Depending on the site, the most recent match comes first or last, so check the key.
How many matches is form measured over?
Usually the last 5, across all competitions or per competition depending on the source. Some analysts also look at the last 10 to smooth out luck.
Does form matter more than league position?
No, the two complement each other. League position sums up the whole season, form the current momentum; over 5 matches, the fixture list and luck weigh heavily.

See also

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