Bankroll (staking)
A bankroll is the money a bettor sets aside for betting only, kept separate from everyday finances. Bankroll management sets each stake as a share of that pot, often 1 to 2%, so that losing runs can be absorbed without wiping it out.
A bankroll answers a simple question: how much am I prepared to lose in total? It should be money you don't need, never the rent, the shopping or savings. Once set, it isn't topped up whenever losses come.
The most common method is flat (or proportional) staking: each bet is 1 to 2% of the bankroll. With £500, that's £5 to £10 a bet. The point is to survive variance: even with sound estimates, runs of ten or fifteen losses happen, and a 20% stake makes them fatal.
A more theoretical approach is the Kelly criterion: f* = (b × p − q) ÷ b, where b = odds − 1, p is the estimated probability of winning and q = 1 − p. It gives the share of bankroll that maximises long-term growth… if p is accurate. Overestimating p makes you stake too much, which is why people often use fractional Kelly (a quarter or a half). If f* is zero or negative, Kelly simply says don't bet.
The most important rule isn't mathematical: never try to « chase losses » by raising stakes after a defeat, and only stake what you can afford to lose.
Example
Bankroll of £500. Flat staking at 2%: £10 a bet. Kelly with an estimated probability of 55% and odds of 2.00: b = 1, f* = (1 × 0.55 − 0.45) ÷ 1 = 10%, i.e. £50; at quarter Kelly, 2.5%, i.e. £12.50. If the true probability is only 50%, f* = 0: no bet.
Betting involves risks: losing money, debt, addiction. Betting is for adults only. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. Elofoot is a data analysis tool: it takes no bets and no prediction is guaranteed.
Frequently asked questions
- How much should you stake per bet?
- A common cautious rule is 1 to 2% of the bankroll per bet. With £500, that means £5 to £10, which lets you absorb long losing runs.
- How does the Kelly criterion work?
- It works out the share of bankroll to stake: f* = (b × p − q) ÷ b, with b = odds − 1. Because it assumes an exact probability, people often stake only a quarter or half of it.
- Should you raise your stake to win back losses?
- No. Raising stakes to recover a loss speeds up the ruin of the bankroll. Stakes should be set in advance, as a share of the pot.
See also
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