Clean sheet
A clean sheet is a match in which a team concedes no goals. It's a key marker of defensive solidity: a clean sheet is credited to the team (and often the goalkeeper) that finishes without conceding, regardless of how many goals it scores itself.
A clean sheet is credited to a team that concedes no goals during the match, extra time included: penalty shoot-out kicks are not goals and change nothing. In individual stats it mostly goes to the goalkeeper and defenders; some fantasy football games only award clean-sheet points above a minimum playing time.
The clean-sheet rate (matches without conceding ÷ matches played) reflects defensive solidity, but it also depends on the fixture list: an average defence keeps more clean sheets against blunt attacks. Expected goals against (xGA) shows whether a run is deserved or whether the goalkeeper keeps bailing the team out.
With a Poisson model, the probability that a team keeps a clean sheet is simply the probability that the opponent scores zero: P = e^−λ, where λ is the opponent's expected goals. For λ = 1.1 that gives about 33%; for λ = 0.8, about 45%. Clean sheets are tied to BTTS (both teams to score): BTTS « no » comes in as soon as at least one of the two teams keeps a clean sheet.
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A team winning 1-0 keeps a clean sheet; a 2-1 is not one.
How Elofoot uses it
Elofoot does not publish a clean-sheet probability as such. Its Poisson grid does give the probability of BTTS (both teams to score) and of over/under from 0.5 to 3.5 goals: a high probability of BTTS « no » points to a match where at least one side has a good chance of keeping a clean sheet.
Frequently asked questions
- What does clean sheet mean in football?
- It is a match finished without conceding a goal. The phrase comes from the blank sheet on which no goals against were recorded; it is also called a shutout.
- Does a 0-0 count as a clean sheet?
- Yes, for both teams at once: neither conceded a goal.
- How do you calculate the probability of a clean sheet?
- With a Poisson model it is e^−λ, where λ is the opponent's expected goals. Against a side on 1.1 expected goals, that gives about 33%.
- Do penalty shoot-outs count?
- No. Shoot-out kicks are not match goals: a team that finishes 0-0 after extra time keeps its clean sheet, even if it concedes in the shoot-out.
See also
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