Comeback (remontada)
A remontada is the turnaround of a match or two-legged tie that looked lost, by overturning a deficit of several goals. The Spanish word caught on after Barcelona beat PSG 6-1 on 8 March 2017, having lost the first leg 4-0.
« Remontada » comes from the Spanish verb remontar, « to climb back ». It describes a spectacular turnaround: a team trailing by several goals, in a single match or over a two-legged tie, ends up winning or going through. The term became famous with the 2017 Champions League round-of-16 second leg: beaten 4-0 at the Parc des Princes in the first leg, Barcelona won 6-1 at Camp Nou, scoring three times from the 88th minute onwards, and went through 6-5 on aggregate.
In a two-legged tie, everything comes down to the aggregate, the total goals over both matches. The away goals rule, which favoured the team that had scored more on the road, was abolished by UEFA in 2021 and by CONMEBOL in 2022: now, if the aggregate is level, there is extra time and then, if needed, a penalty shoot-out. Another famous example: Liverpool, beaten 3-0 in Barcelona, won 4-0 at Anfield in the 2019 Champions League semi-final.
Statistically, comebacks of this kind are rare, which is exactly what makes them memorable. Overturning three or four goals requires the trailing team to score a lot while conceding almost nothing, even though it has to take risks. For a prediction, beware of emotion: a second leg starts with a first-leg score already in the bank, and that score sets how many goals are needed.
Example
A team lost the first leg 2-0. In the second leg, at home, with 1.8 expected goals against 1.0 for the opponent, a Poisson model gives about a 14.6% chance of winning by three or more goals (going through outright) and about 17.3% of winning by exactly two, which leads to extra time.
How Elofoot uses it
For a second leg, Elofoot's AI analysis takes the first-leg score into account: qualification is decided on aggregate, and extra time or penalties are only considered if the aggregate is level after the score chosen for the match. The 1X2 shown remains that of the match itself, over 90 minutes.
Frequently asked questions
- Where does the word remontada come from?
- From the Spanish verb remontar (« to climb back »). It became widely used after Barcelona 6-1 PSG in the Champions League on 8 March 2017.
- What was the score in Barcelona v PSG in 2017?
- PSG had won the first leg 4-0 on 14 February 2017. In the second leg on 8 March, Barcelona won 6-1 and went through 6-5 on aggregate.
- Does the away goals rule still exist?
- Not in UEFA competitions, where it was abolished in 2021, nor in CONMEBOL competitions since 2022. If the aggregate is level, the tie goes to extra time and then penalties.
See also
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