CONMEBOL Sudamericana· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
CONMEBOL Sudamericana: the Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama match is scheduled on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires. The edge goes to Boca Juniors (50%), ahead of the draw (26%) and a Vasco DA Gama win (24%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (13.4%), ahead of 1-1 (12.4%) and 2-0 (9.9%).
Boca Juniors are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 12 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Vasco DA Gama have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Boca Juniors. On average Boca Juniors score 2.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Vasco DA Gama score 1.80 and concede 0.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Vasco DA Gama: Brenner, A. Gomez (suspended), Mateus Carvalho and C. Cuesta (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Boca Juniors or draw" stands at 76%, "Vasco DA Gama or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Boca Juniors are favourites for this Boca Juniors v Vasco DA Gama, with a 50% win probability from our model. On recent form, Boca Juniors are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Vasco DA Gama have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. One to watch: Vasco DA Gama will be without Brenner and A. Gomez.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Boca Juniors – Vasco DA Gama. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Boca Juniors 1-0 Vasco DA Gama | 13.4% |
| Boca Juniors 1-1 Vasco DA Gama | 12.4% |
| Boca Juniors 2-0 Vasco DA Gama | 9.9% |
| Boca Juniors 2-1 Vasco DA Gama | 9.1% |
| Boca Juniors 0-0 Vasco DA Gama | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.40 goals in total (1.48 for Boca Juniors, 0.92 for Vasco DA Gama): over 2.5 goals has a 43% probability and both teams to score 47%. Boca Juniors keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Vasco DA Gama in 23%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Boca Juniors expected goals | 1.48 |
| Vasco DA Gama expected goals | 0.92 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% |
| Boca Juniors clean sheet | 40% |
| Vasco DA Gama clean sheet | 23% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Boca Juniors
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Union Santa Fe · Argentine Primera División | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Racing Club · Copa Argentina | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | San Lorenzo · Argentine Primera División | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sao Paulo · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago · Argentine Primera División | 3-1 | W |
Vasco DA Gama
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Santa Fe · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gremio · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Santa Fe · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A | 0-1 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Boca Juniors
No absences reported.
Vasco DA Gama
- Brenner (out)
- A. Gomez (suspended)
- Mateus Carvalho (out)
- C. Cuesta (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Boca Juniors
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Blanco5/5
- A. Velasco4/5
- F. Herrera4/5
- L. Di Lollo4/5
- L. Lozano4/5
- L. Paredes4/5
- M. Delgado4/5
- L. Brey3/5
- L. Flores3/5
- Miguel Merentiel3/5
- S. Ascacibar3/5
Vasco DA Gama
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Robert Renan4/5
- S. Sosa4/5
- A. Saldivia3/5
- Bruno Duarte3/5
- F. Colidio3/5
- Leo Jardim3/5
- Lucas Piton3/5
- Paulo Henrique3/5
- Thiago Mendes3/5
- A. Gomez2/5
- Adson2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
Frequently asked questions
What is the Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama prediction?
Our AI gives Boca Juniors a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Vasco DA Gama 24%. Boca Juniors are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama?
1-0 (13.4%), followed by 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.1%) and 0-0 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama?
The probability that both Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama score is 47%. Boca Juniors have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Vasco DA Gama 23%.
How many goals should we expect in Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model expects 2.40 goals (1.48 for Boca Juniors, 0.92 for Vasco DA Gama). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.
When and where is Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama played?
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), CONMEBOL Sudamericana. Venue: Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires.
What form are Boca Juniors and Vasco DA Gama in?
Boca Juniors: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 4 conceded). Vasco DA Gama: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded).
How is the Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.48 for Boca Juniors, 0.92 for Vasco DA Gama) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Boca Juniors predictions
- All Vasco DA Gama predictions
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology