Serie B· Kick-off : Friday, October 16, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)
Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Hellas Verona 2-2 Catanzaro. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Hellas Verona (54%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
Match analysis
Hellas Verona and Catanzaro met on Friday, October 16, 2026, a Serie B, matchday 7 fixture. Venue: Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Verona. Before kick-off, our model gave Hellas Verona a 54% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Catanzaro 21%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (13.1%), followed by 1-1 (11.8%) and 2-0 (10.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Hellas Verona have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 8. Catanzaro have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 9. Hellas Verona therefore arrive in far better shape than Catanzaro. On average Hellas Verona score 2.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Catanzaro score 0.80 and concede 1.80. In the table, Hellas Verona sit 9th with 7 points from 6 games, Catanzaro 19th with 3 points from 6. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Hellas Verona have averaged 2.04 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.89 for Catanzaro.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Hellas Verona, 0 for Catanzaro and 0 draws. The most recent ended Hellas Verona 3-0 Catanzaro (Aug 14, 2021). In double chance terms, "Hellas Verona or draw" stands at 79%, "Catanzaro or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Hellas Verona to edge Catanzaro (54% probability). In the table, Hellas Verona (9th, 7 pts) host Catanzaro (19th, 3 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 48%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Hellas Verona – Catanzaro. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hellas Verona 1-0 Catanzaro | 13.1% |
| Hellas Verona 1-1 Catanzaro | 11.8% |
| Hellas Verona 2-0 Catanzaro | 10.5% |
| Hellas Verona 2-1 Catanzaro | 9.5% |
| Hellas Verona 0-0 Catanzaro | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.61 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.90 for Catanzaro, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 46% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Hellas Verona keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Catanzaro in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Hellas Verona expected goals | 1.61 |
| Catanzaro expected goals | 0.90 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Hellas Verona clean sheet | 41% |
| Catanzaro clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Hellas Verona
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Modena · Serie B | 2-3 | L |
| Oct 2, 2026 | FC Lugano · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vicenza Virtus · Serie B | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Benevento · Serie B | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Arezzo · Serie B | 5-0 | W |
Catanzaro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mantova · Serie B | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sampdoria · Serie B | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Carrarese · Serie B | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sudtirol · Serie B | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Pisa · Serie B | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona | 9 | 7 | 6 |
| Catanzaro | 19 | 3 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2021 | Hellas Verona 3-0 Catanzaro | Coppa Italia |
Out and doubtful
Hellas Verona
No absences reported.
Catanzaro
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Hellas Verona
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Le Borgne5/5
- A. Sarr5/5
- G. Zappa5/5
- E. Iannoni4/5
- A. Edmundsson3/5
- D. De Battisti3/5
- N. Leali3/5
- N. Lella3/5
- P. Dawidowicz3/5
- S. Korac3/5
- S. Mulattieri3/5
Catanzaro
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Alesi5/5
- J. Petriccione5/5
- M. Pigliacelli5/5
- M. Ruggero5/5
- Matias Antonini5/5
- N. Mosti5/5
- P. Iemmello5/5
- M. Dorval4/5
- B. Verrengia3/5
- N. Koffi3/5
- S. Pafundi3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Ascoli – EmpoliOct 17, 2026
- Padova – Virtus EntellaOct 17, 2026
- Carrarese – ModenaOct 17, 2026
- Benevento – Vicenza VirtusOct 17, 2026
- Mantova – PalermoOct 17, 2026
- Pisa – CremoneseOct 17, 2026
- Juve Stabia – SudtirolOct 18, 2026
- Cesena – AvellinoOct 18, 2026
- Sampdoria – ArezzoOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Hellas Verona a 54% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Catanzaro 21%. Hellas Verona are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro?
1-0 (13.1%), followed by 1-1 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.5%) and 0-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro?
The probability that both Hellas Verona and Catanzaro score is 48%. Hellas Verona have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Catanzaro 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro?
The model expects 2.51 goals (1.61 for Hellas Verona, 0.90 for Catanzaro). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro played?
Friday, October 16, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), Serie B, matchday 7. Venue: Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Verona.
What form are Hellas Verona and Catanzaro in?
Hellas Verona: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 8 conceded). Catanzaro: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Catanzaro?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Hellas Verona, 0 for Catanzaro and 0 draws. The most recent ended Hellas Verona 3-0 Catanzaro (Aug 14, 2021).
What was the Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Hellas Verona 2-2 Catanzaro. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Hellas Verona (54%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
How is the Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Hellas Verona, 0.90 for Catanzaro) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Hellas Verona predictions
- All Catanzaro predictions
- Serie B predictions
- Hellas Verona cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology