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Brasileirão Série BBrasileirão Série B· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 23:00 (UK time)

Vila Nova vs Criciuma: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

Vila NovaVila Nova1 – 0CriciumaCriciuma

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Vila Nova 1-0 Criciuma. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Vila Nova was the model's favourite outcome (39%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (9.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

Match analysis

Vila Nova vs Criciuma was played on Saturday, November 7, 2026 (Brasileirão Série B, matchday 37). Venue: Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania. Before kick-off, our model gave Vila Nova a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Criciuma 35%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (9.1%) and 0-1 (8.7%).

Vila Nova have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 8 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Criciuma have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Recent momentum is clearly with Criciuma. On average Vila Nova score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Criciuma score 1.00 and concede 0.60. In the table, Vila Nova sit 3rd with 63 points from 36 games, Criciuma 4th with 62 points from 36. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Vila Nova have averaged 1.28 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.46 for Criciuma.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Vila Nova, 1 for Criciuma and 0 draws. The most recent ended Criciuma 2-0 Vila Nova (Jul 18, 2026). In double chance terms, "Vila Nova or draw" stands at 65%, "Criciuma or draw" at 61% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Vila Nova and Criciuma meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 26%). In the table, Vila Nova (3rd, 63 pts) host Criciuma (4th, 62 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

39%
Vila Nova (Win)
26%
Draw
35%
Criciuma (Win)

Double chance

65%
Vila Nova or draw
61%
Criciuma or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Vila Nova – Criciuma. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Vila Nova 1-1 Criciuma12.1%
Vila Nova 1-0 Criciuma9.1%
Vila Nova 0-1 Criciuma8.7%
Vila Nova 2-1 Criciuma8.5%
Vila Nova 1-2 Criciuma8.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.73 goals in total (1.40 for Vila Nova, 1.33 for Criciuma): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 55%. Vila Nova keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Criciuma in 25%.

Probability
Vila Nova expected goals1.40
Criciuma expected goals1.33
Both teams to score55%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Vila Nova clean sheet26%
Criciuma clean sheet25%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Vila Nova

DateOpponentScore
Oct 31, 2026Juventude · Brasileirão Série B2-2D
Oct 24, 2026São Bernardo · Brasileirão Série B2-3L
Oct 18, 2026Novorizontino · Brasileirão Série B2-2D
Oct 11, 2026Nautico Recife · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Oct 8, 2026Cuiaba · Brasileirão Série B0-0D

Criciuma

DateOpponentScore
Oct 30, 2026Ponte Preta · Brasileirão Série B2-0W
Oct 24, 2026Sport Recife · Brasileirão Série B1-2L
Oct 18, 2026São Bernardo · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Oct 12, 2026America Mineiro · Brasileirão Série B1-0W
Oct 8, 2026Ceara · Brasileirão Série B0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Vila Nova36336
Criciuma46236

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 18, 2026Criciuma 2-0 Vila NovaBrasileirão Série B

Out and doubtful

Vila Nova

No absences reported.

Criciuma

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Vila Nova

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Douglas Mendes5/5
  • Everton Galdino5/5
  • Helton Leite5/5
  • Janderson5/5
  • Marquinhos Gabriel5/5
  • Hayner4/5
  • Higor4/5
  • Jonathan Costa4/5
  • Andre Luis3/5
  • Dudu3/5
  • Joao Vieira3/5

Criciuma

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Airton5/5
  • Fellipe Mateus5/5
  • Marcelo Hermes5/5
  • Jhonata Robert4/5
  • Luciano Castan4/5
  • R. Otero4/5
  • Ronald Lopes4/5
  • Willean Lepo4/5
  • Cesar Martins3/5
  • Nicolas3/5
  • Rodrigo3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Vila Nova vs Criciuma prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Vila Nova a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Criciuma 35%. Vila Nova are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Vila Nova vs Criciuma?

1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.5%) and 1-2 (8.1%).

Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Criciuma?

The probability that both Vila Nova and Criciuma score is 55%. Vila Nova have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Criciuma 25%.

How many goals should we expect in Vila Nova vs Criciuma?

The model expects 2.73 goals (1.40 for Vila Nova, 1.33 for Criciuma). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.

When and where is Vila Nova vs Criciuma played?

Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 23:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série B, matchday 37. Venue: Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania.

What form are Vila Nova and Criciuma in?

Vila Nova: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Criciuma: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 3 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Vila Nova and Criciuma?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Vila Nova, 1 for Criciuma and 0 draws. The most recent ended Criciuma 2-0 Vila Nova (Jul 18, 2026).

What was the Vila Nova vs Criciuma result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Vila Nova 1-0 Criciuma. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Vila Nova was the model's favourite outcome (39%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (9.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.

How is the Vila Nova vs Criciuma prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.40 for Vila Nova, 1.33 for Criciuma) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained