Bundesliga· Kick-off : Sunday, November 1, 2026, 14:30 (UK time)
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Union Berlin 1-1 1. FC Köln. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for 1. FC Köln (52%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
Match analysis
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln was played on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (Bundesliga, matchday 8). Venue: An der Alten Försterei, Berlin. Before kick-off, our model gave Union Berlin a 24% chance of winning, the draw 24% and 1. FC Köln 52%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.6%), ahead of 0-1 (11.2%) and 1-2 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Union Berlin have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, 1. FC Köln have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Union Berlin score 0.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; 1. FC Köln score 1.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, Union Berlin sit 17th with 6 points from 7 games, 1. FC Köln 14th with 8 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Union Berlin have averaged 1.07 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.60 for 1. FC Köln.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Union Berlin, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 2 draws. The most recent ended Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln (May 2, 2026). Union Berlin out or doubtful: A. Ilic, A. Markgraf, S. Nsoki, R. Skov and F. Uduokhai (suspended). 1. FC Köln: R. Ache, T. Dallinga, T. Hubers, I. Rondic, E. Skhiri and R. van den Berg. In double chance terms, "Union Berlin or draw" stands at 48%, "1. FC Köln or draw" at 76% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : 1. FC Köln are tipped by our AI model in this Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln (52%). In the table, Union Berlin (17th, 6 pts) host 1. FC Köln (14th, 8 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Union Berlin – 1. FC Köln. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Union Berlin 1-1 1. FC Köln | 11.6% |
| Union Berlin 0-1 1. FC Köln | 11.2% |
| Union Berlin 1-2 1. FC Köln | 9.6% |
| Union Berlin 0-2 1. FC Köln | 9.2% |
| Union Berlin 1-0 1. FC Köln | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.69 goals in total (1.04 for Union Berlin, 1.65 for 1. FC Köln): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 52%. Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, 1. FC Köln in 35%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Union Berlin expected goals | 1.04 |
| 1. FC Köln expected goals | 1.65 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Union Berlin clean sheet | 19% |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 35% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Union Berlin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | 1. FC Köln · DFB-Pokal | 0-5 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | FC Augsburg · Bundesliga | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 10, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | HNK Rijeka · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
1. FC Köln
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Union Berlin · DFB-Pokal | 5-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC Viktoria Köln · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 17 | 6 | 7 |
| 1. FC Köln | 14 | 8 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1. FC Köln 0-1 Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| May 11, 2024 | 1. FC Köln 3-2 Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| Dec 20, 2023 | Union Berlin 2-0 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| Mar 4, 2023 | Union Berlin 0-0 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
Out and doubtful
Union Berlin
- A. Ilic (out)
- A. Markgraf (out)
- S. Nsoki (out)
- R. Skov (out)
- F. Uduokhai (suspended)
1. FC Köln
- R. Ache (out)
- T. Dallinga (out)
- T. Hubers (out)
- I. Rondic (out)
- E. Skhiri (out)
- R. van den Berg (out)
Most regular starters
Union Berlin
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Haberer5/5
- Jeong Woo-Yeong5/5
- T. Skarke5/5
- Z. Van Den Bosch5/5
- F. Uduokhai4/5
- M. Aebischer4/5
- R. Khedira4/5
- T. Rothe4/5
- A. Schafer2/5
- A. Schäfer2/5
- F. Ronnow2/5
1. FC Köln
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Sosa4/5
- J. Schmied3/5
- L. Maina3/5
- M. Bulter3/5
- S. El Mala3/5
- S. Sebulonsen3/5
- E. Skhiri2/5
- I. Johannesson2/5
- J. Simpson-Pusey2/5
- Jahmai Simpson-Pusey2/5
- L. Lochoshvili2/5
Other matches in this competition
- SV Elversberg 4-1 FSV Mainz 05Oct 30, 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 VfB StuttgartOct 31, 2026
- FC Schalke 04 0-2 RB LeipzigOct 31, 2026
- FC Augsburg 1-2 SC FreiburgOct 31, 2026
- Werder Bremen 2-0 1899 HoffenheimOct 31, 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 SC Paderborn 07Oct 31, 2026
- Bayern München 2-2 Borussia DortmundOct 31, 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 Hamburger SVNov 1, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Union Berlin a 24% chance of winning, the draw 24% and 1. FC Köln 52%. 1. FC Köln are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
1-1 (11.6%), followed by 0-1 (11.2%), 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (9.2%) and 1-0 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
The probability that both Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln score is 52%. Union Berlin have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, 1. FC Köln 35%.
How many goals should we expect in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
The model expects 2.69 goals (1.04 for Union Berlin, 1.65 for 1. FC Köln). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln played?
Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 14:30 (UK time), Bundesliga, matchday 8. Venue: An der Alten Försterei, Berlin.
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in?
Union Berlin: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded). 1. FC Köln: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Union Berlin, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 2 draws. The most recent ended Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln (May 2, 2026).
What was the Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Union Berlin 1-1 1. FC Köln. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for 1. FC Köln (52%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
How is the Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.04 for Union Berlin, 1.65 for 1. FC Köln) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Union Berlin predictions
- All 1. FC Köln predictions
- Bundesliga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology