UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Fenerbahçe vs Lyon: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Fenerbahçe 1-1 Lyon. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Fenerbahçe (48%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.8%), behind 3-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (62%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (80%): missed.
Match analysis
Fenerbahçe and Lyon met on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Chobani Stadium, Istanbul. Before kick-off, our model gave Fenerbahçe a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lyon 26%. On the correct score, 3-1 comes out on top (8.2%), followed by 3-0 (7.9%) and 2-1 (7.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Fenerbahçe have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Lyon have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Fenerbahçe therefore arrive in far better shape than Lyon. On average Fenerbahçe score 1.20 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Lyon score 1.20 and concede 1.60.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Lyon and 1 draw. Fenerbahçe out or doubtful: E. Demir, Diego Carlos, A. Diouf, O. Fayed and R. Lukaku. Lyon: M. Bidstrup, K. Merah and P. Sulc. In double chance terms, "Fenerbahçe or draw" stands at 74%, "Lyon or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 74%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Fenerbahçe – Lyon. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe 3-1 Lyon | 8.2% |
| Fenerbahçe 3-0 Lyon | 7.9% |
| Fenerbahçe 2-1 Lyon | 7.6% |
| Fenerbahçe 2-0 Lyon | 7.3% |
| Fenerbahçe 4-1 Lyon | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.21 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.04 for Lyon, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 80% and "both teams to score" at 62%. Goals look likely in this one. Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Lyon in 4%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe expected goals | 3.21 |
| Lyon expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61% |
| Fenerbahçe clean sheet | 35% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 4% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Fenerbahçe
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. · Süper Lig | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze · UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sparta Praha · UEFA Champions League | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Sparta Praha · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Real Betis · Club Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Jul 24, 2026 | VfL Wolfsburg · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Slavia Praha · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
Head-to-head
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Lyon and 1 draw.
Out and doubtful
Fenerbahçe
- E. Demir (out)
- Diego Carlos (out)
- A. Diouf (out)
- O. Fayed (out)
- R. Lukaku (out)
Lyon
- M. Bidstrup (out)
- K. Merah (out)
- P. Sulc (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Levski Sofia 0-0 AEK Athens FCAug 18, 2026
- Dinamo Zagreb 2-2 VikingAug 18, 2026
- NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Bodo/GlimtAug 19, 2026
- Slovan Bratislava 1-1 CeljeAug 19, 2026
- Celtic 3-0 Lask LinzAug 19, 2026
- Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-1 Sabah FAAug 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Fenerbahçe vs Lyon prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Fenerbahçe a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lyon 26%. Fenerbahçe are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon?
3-1 (8.2%), followed by 3-0 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.6%), 2-0 (7.3%) and 4-1 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Lyon?
The probability that both Fenerbahçe and Lyon score is 62%. Fenerbahçe have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lyon 4%.
How many goals should we expect in Fenerbahçe vs Lyon?
The model expects 4.25 goals (3.21 for Fenerbahçe, 1.04 for Lyon). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 80%, over 3.5 goals 61%.
When and where is Fenerbahçe vs Lyon played?
Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Chobani Stadium, Istanbul.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Lyon in?
Fenerbahçe: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 3 conceded). Lyon: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Lyon?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Lyon and 1 draw.
What was the Fenerbahçe vs Lyon result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Fenerbahçe 1-1 Lyon. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Fenerbahçe (48%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.8%), behind 3-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (62%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (80%): missed.
How is the Fenerbahçe vs Lyon prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.21 for Fenerbahçe, 1.04 for Lyon) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Fenerbahçe predictions
- All Lyon predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology