Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, November 21, 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
Southampton vs Derby prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Southampton take on Derby on Saturday, November 21, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), a Championship, matchday 16 fixture. Venue: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton. With a 85% win probability, Southampton go in as strong favourites against Derby (5%), with the draw rated at 10%.
Southampton are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 4. Derby have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 14. Recent momentum is clearly with Southampton. On average Southampton score 1.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Derby score 0.60 and concede 2.80. In the table, Southampton sit 7th with 24 points from 15 games, Derby 23rd with 10 points from 15. 16 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Southampton have averaged 1.65 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.03 for Derby.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Southampton, 0 for Derby and 1 draw. The most recent ended Southampton 2-1 Derby (Apr 11, 2026). Southampton out or doubtful: M. Roerslev Rasmussen, C. Jander (doubtful) and C. Larin (doubtful). Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor and L. Travis. In double chance terms, "Southampton or draw" stands at 95%, "Derby or draw" at 15% and "no draw" at 90%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Exact score and goal markets 🔒
The most likely exact score, the top 5 scorelines, expected goals and the both-teams-to-score and over/under probabilities are part of the full prediction. They will be published here as a review once the match is over.
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Southampton
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | West Brom · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 31, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bolton · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 1-0 | W |
Derby
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 0-4 | L |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Stoke City · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 14, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 7 | 24 | 15 |
| Derby | 23 | 10 | 15 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Southampton 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Derby 1-1 Southampton | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Southampton
- M. Roerslev Rasmussen (out)
- C. Jander (doubtful)
- C. Larin (doubtful)
Derby
- P. Agyemang (out)
- E. Cashin (out)
- M. Clarke (out)
- C. Forsyth (out)
- S. Langas (out)
- D. Murkin (out)
- C. Taylor (out)
- L. Travis (out)
Most regular starters
Southampton
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Azaz5/5
- J. Stephens5/5
- J. Ward-Prowse5/5
- K. Schlotterbeck5/5
- J. Bree4/5
- K. Matsuki4/5
- R. Manning4/5
- D. Peretz3/5
- L. Dobbin3/5
- Daniel Peretz2/5
- F. Downes2/5
Derby
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Clark5/5
- C. Morris5/5
- S. Szmodics5/5
- D. Ozoh4/5
- D. Sanderson4/5
- R. Hedges4/5
- R. Nyambe4/5
- H. Meister3/5
- J. Ward3/5
- A. Mowatt2/5
- J. Vickers2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Norwich – CardiffNov 21, 2026
- Millwall – QPRNov 21, 2026
- West Ham – PrestonNov 21, 2026
- Stoke City – BirminghamNov 21, 2026
- Lincoln – WrexhamNov 21, 2026
- Swansea – West BromNov 21, 2026
- Sheffield Utd – WatfordNov 21, 2026
- Bolton – PortsmouthNov 21, 2026
- Middlesbrough – Bristol CityNov 21, 2026
- Wolves – CharltonNov 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Southampton vs Derby prediction?
Our AI gives Southampton a 85% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Derby 5%. Southampton are therefore favourites.
When and where is Southampton vs Derby played?
Saturday, November 21, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), Championship, matchday 16. Venue: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton.
What form are Southampton and Derby in?
Southampton: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded). Derby: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 14 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Derby?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Southampton, 0 for Derby and 1 draw. The most recent ended Southampton 2-1 Derby (Apr 11, 2026).
Go further
- All Southampton predictions
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