CONMEBOL Libertadores· Kick-off : Thursday, October 15, 2026, 01:30 (UK time)
Fluminense vs Palmeiras: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Fluminense 1-2 Palmeiras. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Palmeiras was the model's favourite outcome (35%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.2%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (28%): missed.
Match analysis
Fluminense vs Palmeiras was played on Thursday, October 15, 2026 (CONMEBOL Libertadores). Venue: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. Before kick-off, our model gave Fluminense a 33% chance of winning, the draw 33% and Palmeiras 35%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (16.2%), ahead of 0-1 (15.1%) and 1-0 (14.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Fluminense have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Palmeiras have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Palmeiras. On average Fluminense score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Palmeiras score 1.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, Fluminense sit 2nd with 8 points from 6 games, Palmeiras 2nd with 11 points from 6. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Fluminense have averaged 1.60 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.20 for Palmeiras.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Fluminense, 2 for Palmeiras and 1 draw. The most recent ended Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras (Aug 15, 2026). Fluminense out or doubtful: Alisson, G. Cano, John Kennedy, Matheus Reis and Rene. Palmeiras: Jefte. In double chance terms, "Fluminense or draw" stands at 65%, "Palmeiras or draw" at 67% and "no draw" at 67%.
In short : Fluminense and Palmeiras meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 33%). On recent form, Fluminense have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Palmeiras have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. One to watch: Fluminense will be without Alisson and G. Cano.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Fluminense – Palmeiras. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 66% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fluminense 0-0 Palmeiras | 16.2% |
| Fluminense 0-1 Palmeiras | 15.1% |
| Fluminense 1-0 Palmeiras | 14.4% |
| Fluminense 1-1 Palmeiras | 13.4% |
| Fluminense 0-2 Palmeiras | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.82 goals in total (0.89 for Fluminense, 0.93 for Palmeiras): over 2.5 goals has a 28% probability and both teams to score 36%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Palmeiras in 41%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Fluminense expected goals | 0.89 |
| Palmeiras expected goals | 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 36% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% |
| Fluminense clean sheet | 40% |
| Palmeiras clean sheet | 41% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Fluminense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Platense · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A | 1-3 | L |
Palmeiras
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Bahia · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Gremio · Brasileirão Série A | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | LDU de Quito · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Palmeiras | 2 | 11 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Palmeiras 0-0 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Fluminense 1-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Palmeiras 0-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Fluminense
- Alisson (out)
- G. Cano (out)
- John Kennedy (out)
- Matheus Reis (out)
- Rene (out)
Palmeiras
- Jefte (out)
Most regular starters
Fluminense
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Fábio5/5
- Agustín Canobbio3/5
- Guilherme Arana3/5
- Hulk3/5
- Julián Millán3/5
- Luciano Acosta3/5
- Nonato3/5
- Thiago Silva3/5
- Guga2/5
- Hércules2/5
- Jefferson Savarino2/5
Palmeiras
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Andreas Pereira5/5
- Carlos Miguel5/5
- Lucas Evangelista5/5
- Gustavo Gómez4/5
- José Manuel López4/5
- Murilo4/5
- Vitor Roque4/5
- Agustín Giay3/5
- Alexander Barboza3/5
- Jhon Arias3/5
- Joaquín Piquerez3/5
Other matches in this competition
Frequently asked questions
What is the Fluminense vs Palmeiras prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Fluminense a 33% chance of winning, the draw 33% and Palmeiras 35%. Palmeiras are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
0-0 (16.2%), followed by 0-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (13.4%) and 0-2 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
The probability that both Fluminense and Palmeiras score is 36%. Fluminense have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Palmeiras 41%.
How many goals should we expect in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
The model expects 1.82 goals (0.89 for Fluminense, 0.93 for Palmeiras). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 54%, over 2.5 goals 28%, over 3.5 goals 11%.
When and where is Fluminense vs Palmeiras played?
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), CONMEBOL Libertadores. Venue: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro.
What form are Fluminense and Palmeiras in?
Fluminense: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Palmeiras: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Fluminense, 2 for Palmeiras and 1 draw. The most recent ended Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras (Aug 15, 2026).
What was the Fluminense vs Palmeiras result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Fluminense 1-2 Palmeiras. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Palmeiras was the model's favourite outcome (35%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.2%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (36%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (28%): missed.
How is the Fluminense vs Palmeiras prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.89 for Fluminense, 0.93 for Palmeiras) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Fluminense predictions
- All Palmeiras predictions
- CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology