CONMEBOL Libertadores· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 01:30 (UK time)
Palmeiras vs Fluminense: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Palmeiras 0-1 Fluminense (5-3 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Palmeiras (64%), while victory for Fluminense was rated at only 16%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.6%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): missed.
Match analysis
Palmeiras vs Fluminense was played on Thursday, October 22, 2026 (CONMEBOL Libertadores). Venue: Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo. Before kick-off, our model gave Palmeiras a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Fluminense 16%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (10.7%), ahead of 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.9%).
Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Fluminense have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Palmeiras. On average Palmeiras score 1.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Fluminense score 1.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Palmeiras sit 2nd with 11 points from 6 games, Fluminense 2nd with 8 points from 6. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Palmeiras have averaged 1.48 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.31 for Fluminense.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Palmeiras, 2 for Fluminense and 1 draw. The most recent ended Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras (Aug 15, 2026). Palmeiras out or doubtful: A. Giay (suspended), G. Gomez (suspended), Jefte and Vitor Roque. Fluminense: Alisson, G. Cano, Guilherme Arana (suspended), John Kennedy, Martinelli and Matheus Reis. In double chance terms, "Palmeiras or draw" stands at 84%, "Fluminense or draw" at 36% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs Palmeiras to edge Fluminense (64% probability). On recent form, Palmeiras are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Fluminense have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 58%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Palmeiras – Fluminense. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Palmeiras 2-0 Fluminense | 10.7% |
| Palmeiras 1-0 Fluminense | 10.3% |
| Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense | 9.9% |
| Palmeiras 1-1 Fluminense | 9.5% |
| Palmeiras 3-0 Fluminense | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.01 goals in total (2.08 for Palmeiras, 0.93 for Fluminense): over 2.5 goals has a 58% probability and both teams to score 53%. Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Fluminense in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Palmeiras expected goals | 2.08 |
| Fluminense expected goals | 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% |
| Palmeiras clean sheet | 40% |
| Fluminense clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Palmeiras
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Fluminense · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Bahia · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Gremio · Brasileirão Série A | 0-0 | D |
Fluminense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Santos · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Palmeiras · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 2 | 11 | 6 |
| Fluminense | 2 | 8 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Palmeiras 0-0 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Fluminense 1-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Palmeiras 0-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Palmeiras
- A. Giay (suspended)
- G. Gomez (suspended)
- Jefte (out)
- Vitor Roque (out)
Fluminense
- Alisson (out)
- G. Cano (out)
- Guilherme Arana (suspended)
- John Kennedy (out)
- Martinelli (out)
- Matheus Reis (out)
Most regular starters
Palmeiras
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Andreas Pereira5/5
- Carlos Miguel5/5
- Lucas Evangelista5/5
- Murilo4/5
- Alexander Barboza3/5
- Gustavo Gómez3/5
- José Manuel López3/5
- Marlon Freitas3/5
- Vitor Roque3/5
- A. Barboza2/5
- Agustín Giay2/5
Fluminense
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Fábio5/5
- Nonato4/5
- Guilherme Arana3/5
- Hulk3/5
- Julián Millán3/5
- Samuel Xavier3/5
- Thiago Silva3/5
- A. Canobbio2/5
- Agustín Canobbio2/5
- Guga2/5
- Hércules2/5
Other matches in this competition
Frequently asked questions
What is the Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Palmeiras a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Fluminense 16%. Palmeiras are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
2-0 (10.7%), followed by 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
The probability that both Palmeiras and Fluminense score is 53%. Palmeiras have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Fluminense 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
The model expects 3.01 goals (2.08 for Palmeiras, 0.93 for Fluminense). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 36%.
When and where is Palmeiras vs Fluminense played?
Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), CONMEBOL Libertadores. Venue: Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo.
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in?
Palmeiras: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded). Fluminense: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Palmeiras, 2 for Fluminense and 1 draw. The most recent ended Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras (Aug 15, 2026).
What was the Palmeiras vs Fluminense result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Palmeiras 0-1 Fluminense (5-3 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Palmeiras (64%), while victory for Fluminense was rated at only 16%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.6%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): missed.
How is the Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.08 for Palmeiras, 0.93 for Fluminense) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Palmeiras predictions
- All Fluminense predictions
- CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology