CONMEBOL Sudamericana· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)
Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG kicks off on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo. Our model makes Atletico Torque clear favourites: a 64% chance of winning, against 25% for the draw and 11% for Atletico-MG. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (20.7%), followed by 2-0 (15.8%) and 0-0 (13.5%).
Atletico Torque have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico-MG have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Atletico-MG therefore arrive in far better shape than Atletico Torque. On average Atletico Torque score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Atletico-MG score 1.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Atletico Torque sit 1st with 13 points from 6 games, Atletico-MG 1st with 10 points from 6. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Atletico-MG: T. Borbas, K. Castano (doubtful), Everson, A. Franco, Gustavo Scarpa, A. Minda, K. Pascini and A. Preciado. In double chance terms, "Atletico Torque or draw" stands at 89%, "Atletico-MG or draw" at 36% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Atletico Torque to edge Atletico-MG (64% probability). In the table, Atletico Torque (1st, 13 pts) host Atletico-MG (1st, 10 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Torque – Atletico-MG. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (20.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 68% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Torque 1-0 Atletico-MG | 20.7% |
| Atletico Torque 2-0 Atletico-MG | 15.8% |
| Atletico Torque 0-0 Atletico-MG | 13.5% |
| Atletico Torque 1-1 Atletico-MG | 9.7% |
| Atletico Torque 3-0 Atletico-MG | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.53 expected goals for Atletico Torque and 0.47 for Atletico-MG, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 32% and "both teams to score" at 29%. Few goals are expected here. Atletico Torque keep a clean sheet in 63% of scenarios, Atletico-MG in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Torque expected goals | 1.53 |
| Atletico-MG expected goals | 0.47 |
| Both teams to score | 29% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% |
| Atletico Torque clean sheet | 63% |
| Atletico-MG clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico Torque
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Club Nacional · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Atenas · Copa Uruguay | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Central Espanol · Uruguayan Primera División | 4-1 | W |
Atletico-MG
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Santos · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Santos · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Torque | 1 | 13 | 6 |
| Atletico-MG | 1 | 10 | 6 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Atletico Torque
No absences reported.
Atletico-MG
- T. Borbas (out)
- K. Castano (doubtful)
- Everson (out)
- A. Franco (out)
- Gustavo Scarpa (out)
- A. Minda (out)
- K. Pascini (out)
- A. Preciado (out)
Most regular starters
Atletico Torque
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Aguero4/4
- F. Pizzichillo4/4
- F. Silvera4/4
- F. Torgnascioli4/4
- G. Montes4/4
- K. Silva4/4
- L. Andrade4/4
- D. Guzman3/4
- E. Obregon3/4
- B. Gutierrez2/4
- G. Kagelmacher2/4
Atletico-MG
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Bernard5/5
- Fred5/5
- Gabriel Delfim5/5
- Maycon4/5
- Vitor Hugo4/5
- Lyanco3/5
- Natanael3/5
- Reinier3/5
- Vitão3/5
- A. Franco2/5
- Kauã Pascini2/5
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See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG prediction?
Our AI gives Atletico Torque a 64% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico-MG 11%. Atletico Torque are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG?
1-0 (20.7%), followed by 2-0 (15.8%), 0-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (9.7%) and 3-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG?
The probability that both Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG score is 29%. Atletico Torque have a 63% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico-MG 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG?
The model expects 2.00 goals (1.53 for Atletico Torque, 0.47 for Atletico-MG). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 59%, over 2.5 goals 32%, over 3.5 goals 14%.
When and where is Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG played?
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), CONMEBOL Sudamericana. Venue: Estadio Centenario, Montevideo.
What form are Atletico Torque and Atletico-MG in?
Atletico Torque: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). Atletico-MG: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.53 for Atletico Torque, 0.47 for Atletico-MG) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Torque predictions
- All Atletico-MG predictions
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology