CONMEBOL Sudamericana· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors kicks off on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time). Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Vasco DA Gama 41%, Boca Juniors 29% and the draw 30%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.3%), ahead of 1-1 (13.3%) and 0-0 (12.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Vasco DA Gama have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 2. Boca Juniors are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 12 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Boca Juniors. On average Vasco DA Gama score 1.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Boca Juniors score 2.40 and concede 0.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Vasco DA Gama out or doubtful: Brenner, C. Cuesta (doubtful), A. Gomez (suspended), Mateus Carvalho and Bruno Duarte (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Vasco DA Gama or draw" stands at 71%, "Boca Juniors or draw" at 59% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : Vasco DA Gama are tipped by our AI model in this Vasco DA Gama v Boca Juniors (41%). On recent form, Vasco DA Gama have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Boca Juniors are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Vasco DA Gama – Boca Juniors. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Boca Juniors | 14.3% |
| Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Boca Juniors | 13.3% |
| Vasco DA Gama 0-0 Boca Juniors | 12.4% |
| Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Boca Juniors | 11.5% |
| Vasco DA Gama 2-0 Boca Juniors | 8.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.09 goals in total (1.16 for Vasco DA Gama, 0.93 for Boca Juniors): over 2.5 goals has a 35% probability and both teams to score 42%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Boca Juniors in 31%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama expected goals | 1.16 |
| Boca Juniors expected goals | 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% |
| Vasco DA Gama clean sheet | 40% |
| Boca Juniors clean sheet | 31% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Vasco DA Gama
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Santa Fe · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gremio · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Santa Fe · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A | 0-1 | L |
Boca Juniors
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Union Santa Fe · Argentine Primera División | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Racing Club · Copa Argentina | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | San Lorenzo · Argentine Primera División | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sao Paulo · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago · Argentine Primera División | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama | 2 | 10 | 6 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Vasco DA Gama
- Brenner (out)
- C. Cuesta (doubtful)
- A. Gomez (suspended)
- Mateus Carvalho (out)
- Bruno Duarte (doubtful)
Boca Juniors
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Vasco DA Gama
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Robert Renan4/5
- S. Sosa4/5
- A. Saldivia3/5
- Bruno Duarte3/5
- F. Colidio3/5
- Leo Jardim3/5
- Lucas Piton3/5
- Paulo Henrique3/5
- Thiago Mendes3/5
- A. Gomez2/5
- Adson2/5
Boca Juniors
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Blanco5/5
- A. Velasco4/5
- F. Herrera4/5
- L. Di Lollo4/5
- L. Lozano4/5
- L. Paredes4/5
- M. Delgado4/5
- L. Brey3/5
- L. Flores3/5
- Miguel Merentiel3/5
- S. Ascacibar3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
Frequently asked questions
What is the Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors prediction?
Our AI gives Vasco DA Gama a 41% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Boca Juniors 29%. Vasco DA Gama are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors?
1-0 (14.3%), followed by 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.5%) and 2-0 (8.3%).
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors?
The probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors score is 42%. Vasco DA Gama have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Boca Juniors 31%.
How many goals should we expect in Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors?
The model expects 2.09 goals (1.16 for Vasco DA Gama, 0.93 for Boca Juniors). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 62%, over 2.5 goals 35%, over 3.5 goals 16%.
When and where is Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors played?
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), CONMEBOL Sudamericana.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Boca Juniors in?
Vasco DA Gama: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded). Boca Juniors: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.16 for Vasco DA Gama, 0.93 for Boca Juniors) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Vasco DA Gama predictions
- All Boca Juniors predictions
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology