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Copa do BrasilCopa do Brasil· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)

Atletico-MG vs Gremio: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG1 – 1GremioGremio

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Atletico-MG 1-1 Gremio. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Gremio (41%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (13.2%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): correct.

Match analysis

Atletico-MG and Gremio met on Saturday, November 7, 2026, a Copa do Brasil fixture. Venue: MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico-MG a 30% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Gremio 41%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (13.2%), followed by 1-1 (13.2%) and 0-0 (10.8%).

Atletico-MG have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Gremio have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Gremio therefore arrive in far better shape than Atletico-MG. On average Atletico-MG score 0.40 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Gremio score 1.60 and concede 1.40. Over their recent games, Atletico-MG have averaged 0.98 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.25 for Gremio.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Atletico-MG, 3 for Gremio and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico-MG 3-0 Gremio (Aug 16, 2026). Atletico-MG out or doubtful: T. Borbas, M. Cassierra, Fred, Reinier and Ruan Tressoldi. Gremio: Carlos Vinicius (suspended), Danilo Barbosa, Diego Caito, J. Nardoni, C. Pavon, Weverton (suspended) and J. Cabral (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Atletico-MG or draw" stands at 59%, "Gremio or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 71%.

In short : Gremio are tipped by our AI model in this Atletico-MG v Gremio (41%). On recent form, Atletico-MG are struggling (5 losses in 5) while Gremio have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

30%
Atletico-MG (Win)
29%
Draw
41%
Gremio (Win)

Double chance

59%
Atletico-MG or draw
70%
Gremio or draw
71%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Atletico-MG – Gremio. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Atletico-MG 0-1 Gremio13.2%
Atletico-MG 1-1 Gremio13.2%
Atletico-MG 0-0 Gremio10.8%
Atletico-MG 1-0 Gremio10.8%
Atletico-MG 0-2 Gremio8.1%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.00 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 1.23 for Gremio, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 39% and "both teams to score" at 45%. Few goals are expected here. Atletico-MG keep a clean sheet in 29% of scenarios, Gremio in 37%.

Probability
Atletico-MG expected goals1.00
Gremio expected goals1.23
Both teams to score45%
Over 1.5 goals65%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Atletico-MG clean sheet29%
Gremio clean sheet37%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Atletico-MG

DateOpponentScore
Nov 5, 2026Botafogo · Brasileirão Série A0-1L
Nov 1, 2026Gremio · Copa do Brasil0-2L
Oct 29, 2026Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A0-1L
Oct 26, 2026Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A2-3L
Oct 21, 2026Atletico Torque · CONMEBOL Sudamericana0-2L

Gremio

DateOpponentScore
Nov 4, 2026Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A1-3L
Nov 1, 2026Atletico-MG · Copa do Brasil2-0W
Oct 30, 2026Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A2-0W
Oct 26, 2026Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A1-0W
Oct 18, 2026Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A2-4L

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 16, 2026Atletico-MG 3-0 GremioSerie A
Feb 26, 2026Gremio 2-1 Atletico-MGSerie A
Aug 17, 2025Atletico-MG 1-3 GremioSerie A
Mar 29, 2025Gremio 2-1 Atletico-MGSerie A
Oct 9, 2024Atletico-MG 2-1 GremioSerie A

Out and doubtful

Atletico-MG

  • T. Borbas (out)
  • M. Cassierra (out)
  • Fred (out)
  • Reinier (out)
  • Ruan Tressoldi (out)

Gremio

  • Carlos Vinicius (suspended)
  • Danilo Barbosa (out)
  • Diego Caito (out)
  • J. Nardoni (out)
  • C. Pavon (out)
  • Weverton (suspended)
  • J. Cabral (doubtful)

Most regular starters

Atletico-MG

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Franco4/5
  • Gabriel Delfim4/5
  • Lyanco4/5
  • Victor Hugo4/5
  • Bernard3/5
  • Maycon3/5
  • Vitao3/5
  • A. Preciado2/5
  • Gustavo Scarpa2/5
  • Igor Gomes2/5
  • K. Castaño2/5

Gremio

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Gustavo Martins5/5
  • M. Villasanti5/5
  • E. Noriega4/5
  • F. Amuzu4/5
  • Marlon4/5
  • Weverton4/5
  • Carlos Vinicius3/5
  • Wallace3/5
  • C. Pavon2/5
  • Diego Caito2/5
  • Fabian Balbuena2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Atletico-MG a 30% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Gremio 41%. Gremio are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Atletico-MG vs Gremio?

0-1 (13.2%), followed by 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.8%) and 0-2 (8.1%).

Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Gremio?

The probability that both Atletico-MG and Gremio score is 45%. Atletico-MG have a 29% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Gremio 37%.

How many goals should we expect in Atletico-MG vs Gremio?

The model expects 2.23 goals (1.00 for Atletico-MG, 1.23 for Gremio). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 65%, over 2.5 goals 39%, over 3.5 goals 19%.

When and where is Atletico-MG vs Gremio played?

Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), Copa do Brasil. Venue: MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte.

What form are Atletico-MG and Gremio in?

Atletico-MG: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 9 conceded). Gremio: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Gremio?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Atletico-MG, 3 for Gremio and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico-MG 3-0 Gremio (Aug 16, 2026).

What was the Atletico-MG vs Gremio result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Atletico-MG 1-1 Gremio. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Gremio (41%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (13.2%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): correct.

How is the Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.00 for Atletico-MG, 1.23 for Gremio) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained