Copa do Brasil· Kick-off : Sunday, November 8, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Palmeiras (4-5 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Palmeiras (67%), while victory for Vasco DA Gama was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.2%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): correct.
Match analysis
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras was played on Sunday, November 8, 2026 (Copa do Brasil). Venue: São Januário, Rio de Janeiro. Before kick-off, our model gave Vasco DA Gama a 15% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Palmeiras 67%. The most likely correct score is 0-2 (9.7%), ahead of 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-1 (8.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Vasco DA Gama have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Palmeiras have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Palmeiras. On average Vasco DA Gama score 1.60 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Palmeiras score 1.80 and concede 0.40. Over their recent games, Vasco DA Gama have averaged 0.93 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.50 for Palmeiras.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Vasco DA Gama, 4 for Palmeiras and 0 draws. The most recent ended Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama (Aug 23, 2026). Vasco DA Gama out or doubtful: Cauan Barros, C. Cuesta, A. Gomez and Mateus Carvalho. Palmeiras: Jefte, Paulinho and R. Sosa. In double chance terms, "Vasco DA Gama or draw" stands at 33%, "Palmeiras or draw" at 85% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Palmeiras are tipped by our AI model in this Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras (67%). On recent form, Vasco DA Gama have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Palmeiras have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Vasco DA Gama – Palmeiras. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama 0-2 Palmeiras | 9.7% |
| Vasco DA Gama 1-2 Palmeiras | 9.7% |
| Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Palmeiras | 8.4% |
| Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Palmeiras | 8.4% |
| Vasco DA Gama 0-3 Palmeiras | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.32 goals in total (1.00 for Vasco DA Gama, 2.32 for Palmeiras): over 2.5 goals has a 65% probability and both teams to score 57%. Everything points to an open game. Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 10% of scenarios, Palmeiras in 37%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama expected goals | 1.00 |
| Palmeiras expected goals | 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% |
| Vasco DA Gama clean sheet | 10% |
| Palmeiras clean sheet | 37% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Vasco DA Gama
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Palmeiras · Copa do Brasil | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-3 | L |
Palmeiras
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | Remo · Brasileirão Série A | 6-1 | W |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · Copa do Brasil | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Santos · Brasileirão Série A | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 24, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Fluminense · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0-1 | L |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Palmeiras 3-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| May 4, 2025 | Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Vasco DA Gama
- Cauan Barros (out)
- C. Cuesta (out)
- A. Gomez (out)
- Mateus Carvalho (out)
Palmeiras
- Jefte (out)
- Paulinho (out)
- R. Sosa (out)
Most regular starters
Vasco DA Gama
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Lescano5/5
- Thiago Mendes5/5
- A. Saldivia4/5
- Cuiabano4/5
- Robert Renan4/5
- S. Sosa4/5
- Bruno Duarte3/5
- F. Colidio3/5
- J. Rodriguez3/5
- Leo Jardim3/5
- A. Gomez2/5
Palmeiras
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Carlos Miguel5/5
- J. Arias5/5
- Marlon Freitas5/5
- A. Barboza4/5
- A. Giay4/5
- Lucas Evangelista4/5
- Murilo4/5
- Andreas Pereira3/5
- G. Gomez3/5
- J. Piquerez3/5
- Arthur Gabriel2/5
Other matches in this competition
Frequently asked questions
What is the Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Vasco DA Gama a 15% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Palmeiras 67%. Palmeiras are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
0-2 (9.7%), followed by 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.4%), 1-1 (8.4%) and 0-3 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
The probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras score is 57%. Vasco DA Gama have a 10% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Palmeiras 37%.
How many goals should we expect in Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
The model expects 3.32 goals (1.00 for Vasco DA Gama, 2.32 for Palmeiras). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 65%, over 3.5 goals 42%.
When and where is Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras played?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Copa do Brasil. Venue: São Januário, Rio de Janeiro.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras in?
Vasco DA Gama: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 11 conceded). Palmeiras: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Vasco DA Gama, 4 for Palmeiras and 0 draws. The most recent ended Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama (Aug 23, 2026).
What was the Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Palmeiras (4-5 on penalties). The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Palmeiras (67%), while victory for Vasco DA Gama was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.2%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): correct.
How is the Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.00 for Vasco DA Gama, 2.32 for Palmeiras) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Vasco DA Gama predictions
- All Palmeiras predictions
- Copa do Brasil predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology