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Copa do BrasilCopa do Brasil· Kick-off : Sunday, November 1, 2026, 21:30 (UK time)

Gremio vs Atletico-MG: 2-0 result and AI prediction review

GremioGremio2 – 0Atletico-MGAtletico-MG

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Gremio 2-0 Atletico-MG. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Gremio at 55%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): missed.

Match analysis

Gremio and Atletico-MG met on Sunday, November 1, 2026, a Copa do Brasil fixture. Venue: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre. Before kick-off, our model gave Gremio a 55% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico-MG 23%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (10.1%), followed by 2-1 (9.8%) and 1-0 (8.5%).

Over their last 5 matches, Gremio have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico-MG have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Gremio score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Atletico-MG score 1.20 and concede 1.20. Over their recent games, Gremio have averaged 1.71 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.35 for Atletico-MG.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Gremio, 2 for Atletico-MG and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico-MG 3-0 Gremio (Aug 16, 2026). Gremio out or doubtful: J. Cabral, Danilo Barbosa, Diego Caito, J. Nardoni and C. Pavon. Atletico-MG: T. Borbas, M. Cassierra, Cuello, Everson, Fred, Ruan Tressoldi and Vitor Hugo (suspended). In double chance terms, "Gremio or draw" stands at 77%, "Atletico-MG or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 78%.

In short : Gremio are tipped by our AI model in this Gremio v Atletico-MG (55%). On recent form, Gremio have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Atletico-MG have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

55%
Gremio (Win)
22%
Draw
23%
Atletico-MG (Win)

Double chance

77%
Gremio or draw
45%
Atletico-MG or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Gremio – Atletico-MG. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Gremio 1-1 Atletico-MG10.1%
Gremio 2-1 Atletico-MG9.8%
Gremio 1-0 Atletico-MG8.5%
Gremio 2-0 Atletico-MG8.3%
Gremio 3-1 Atletico-MG6.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.95 expected goals for Gremio and 1.18 for Atletico-MG, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 61% and "both teams to score" at 59%. Goals look likely in this one. Gremio keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Atletico-MG in 14%.

Probability
Gremio expected goals1.95
Atletico-MG expected goals1.18
Both teams to score59%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Gremio clean sheet31%
Atletico-MG clean sheet14%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Gremio

DateOpponentScore
Oct 30, 2026Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A2-0W
Oct 26, 2026Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A1-0W
Oct 18, 2026Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A2-4L
Oct 11, 2026Internacional · Brasileirão Série A1-1D
Oct 7, 2026Remo · Brasileirão Série A1-1D

Atletico-MG

DateOpponentScore
Oct 29, 2026Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A0-1L
Oct 26, 2026Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A2-3L
Oct 21, 2026Atletico Torque · CONMEBOL Sudamericana0-2L
Oct 17, 2026Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A1-0W
Oct 14, 2026Atletico Torque · CONMEBOL Sudamericana3-0W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 16, 2026Atletico-MG 3-0 GremioSerie A
Feb 26, 2026Gremio 2-1 Atletico-MGSerie A
Aug 17, 2025Atletico-MG 1-3 GremioSerie A
Mar 29, 2025Gremio 2-1 Atletico-MGSerie A
Oct 9, 2024Atletico-MG 2-1 GremioSerie A

Out and doubtful

Gremio

  • J. Cabral (out)
  • Danilo Barbosa (out)
  • Diego Caito (out)
  • J. Nardoni (out)
  • C. Pavon (out)

Atletico-MG

  • T. Borbas (out)
  • M. Cassierra (out)
  • Cuello (out)
  • Everson (out)
  • Fred (out)
  • Ruan Tressoldi (out)
  • Vitor Hugo (suspended)

Most regular starters

Gremio

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Weverton5/5
  • C. Pavon4/5
  • Carlos Vinicius4/5
  • F. Amuzu4/5
  • M. Villasanti4/5
  • Marlon4/5
  • Wallace4/5
  • Danilo Barbosa3/5
  • Diego Caito3/5
  • Gustavo Martins3/5
  • Walter Kannemann3/5

Atletico-MG

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Gabriel Delfim5/5
  • Lyanco4/5
  • Victor Hugo4/5
  • A. Franco3/5
  • Bernard3/5
  • Igor Gomes3/5
  • Maycon3/5
  • Natanael3/5
  • Reinier3/5
  • Renan Lodi3/5
  • Vitão3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Gremio vs Atletico-MG prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Gremio a 55% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico-MG 23%. Gremio are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Gremio vs Atletico-MG?

1-1 (10.1%), followed by 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.5%), 2-0 (8.3%) and 3-1 (6.4%).

Will both teams score in Gremio vs Atletico-MG?

The probability that both Gremio and Atletico-MG score is 59%. Gremio have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico-MG 14%.

How many goals should we expect in Gremio vs Atletico-MG?

The model expects 3.13 goals (1.95 for Gremio, 1.18 for Atletico-MG). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 61%, over 3.5 goals 38%.

When and where is Gremio vs Atletico-MG played?

Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 21:30 (UK time), Copa do Brasil. Venue: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre.

What form are Gremio and Atletico-MG in?

Gremio: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Atletico-MG: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Atletico-MG?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Gremio, 2 for Atletico-MG and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico-MG 3-0 Gremio (Aug 16, 2026).

What was the Gremio vs Atletico-MG result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Gremio 2-0 Atletico-MG. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Gremio at 55%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): missed.

How is the Gremio vs Atletico-MG prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.95 for Gremio, 1.18 for Atletico-MG) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained