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Copa do BrasilCopa do Brasil· Kick-off : Sunday, November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

PalmeirasPalmeiras1 – 0Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Palmeiras at 58%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

Match analysis

Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama met on Sunday, November 1, 2026, a Copa do Brasil fixture. Venue: Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo. Before kick-off, our model gave Palmeiras a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Vasco DA Gama 19%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (12.9%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%) and 2-0 (11.1%).

Over their last 5 matches, Palmeiras have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Vasco DA Gama have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 10. Palmeiras therefore arrive in far better shape than Vasco DA Gama. On average Palmeiras score 1.20 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Vasco DA Gama score 1.20 and concede 2.00. Over their recent games, Palmeiras have averaged 1.48 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.01 for Vasco DA Gama.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Palmeiras, 1 for Vasco DA Gama and 0 draws. The most recent ended Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama (Aug 23, 2026). Palmeiras out or doubtful: Jefte, Paulinho and R. Sosa. Vasco DA Gama: Cauan Barros, C. Cuesta, A. Gomez and Mateus Carvalho. In double chance terms, "Palmeiras or draw" stands at 81%, "Vasco DA Gama or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 77%.

In short : Palmeiras are favourites for this Palmeiras v Vasco DA Gama, with a 58% win probability from our model. On recent form, Palmeiras have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Vasco DA Gama have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. One to watch: Vasco DA Gama will be without Cauan Barros and C. Cuesta.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

58%
Palmeiras (Win)
23%
Draw
19%
Vasco DA Gama (Win)

Double chance

81%
Palmeiras or draw
42%
Vasco DA Gama or draw
77%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Palmeiras – Vasco DA Gama. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama12.9%
Palmeiras 1-1 Vasco DA Gama11.2%
Palmeiras 2-0 Vasco DA Gama11.1%
Palmeiras 2-1 Vasco DA Gama9.7%
Palmeiras 0-0 Vasco DA Gama7.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.72 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.87 for Vasco DA Gama, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Vasco DA Gama in 18%.

Probability
Palmeiras expected goals1.72
Vasco DA Gama expected goals0.87
Both teams to score48%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Palmeiras clean sheet42%
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet18%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Palmeiras

DateOpponentScore
Oct 28, 2026Santos · Brasileirão Série A0-0D
Oct 24, 2026RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A2-0W
Oct 22, 2026Fluminense · CONMEBOL Libertadores0-1L
Oct 17, 2026Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A2-0W
Oct 15, 2026Fluminense · CONMEBOL Libertadores2-1W

Vasco DA Gama

DateOpponentScore
Oct 29, 2026Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A1-4L
Oct 24, 2026Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A3-2W
Oct 21, 2026Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana1-3L
Oct 18, 2026Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A0-1L
Oct 14, 2026Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana1-0W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA GamaSerie A
Mar 12, 2026Vasco DA Gama 2-1 PalmeirasSerie A
Oct 1, 2025Palmeiras 3-0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A
May 4, 2025Vasco DA Gama 0-1 PalmeirasSerie A
Sep 22, 2024Vasco DA Gama 0-1 PalmeirasSerie A

Out and doubtful

Palmeiras

  • Jefte (out)
  • Paulinho (out)
  • R. Sosa (out)

Vasco DA Gama

  • Cauan Barros (out)
  • C. Cuesta (out)
  • A. Gomez (out)
  • Mateus Carvalho (out)

Most regular starters

Palmeiras

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Barboza5/5
  • Carlos Miguel5/5
  • Lucas Evangelista5/5
  • A. Giay4/5
  • Andreas Pereira4/5
  • J. Arias4/5
  • J. Piquerez4/5
  • Marlon Freitas4/5
  • Murilo4/5
  • G. Gómez3/5
  • J. López3/5

Vasco DA Gama

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Cuiabano5/5
  • A. Lescano4/5
  • Bruno Duarte4/5
  • Robert Renan4/5
  • S. Sosa4/5
  • Thiago Mendes4/5
  • A. Saldivia3/5
  • Léo Jardim3/5
  • Paulo Henrique3/5
  • A. Gomez2/5
  • Adson2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Palmeiras a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Vasco DA Gama 19%. Palmeiras are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?

1-0 (12.9%), followed by 1-1 (11.2%), 2-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (7.5%).

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?

The probability that both Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama score is 48%. Palmeiras have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Vasco DA Gama 18%.

How many goals should we expect in Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?

The model expects 2.59 goals (1.72 for Palmeiras, 0.87 for Vasco DA Gama). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.

When and where is Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama played?

Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Copa do Brasil. Venue: Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo.

What form are Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama in?

Palmeiras: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 2 conceded). Vasco DA Gama: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 10 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Palmeiras, 1 for Vasco DA Gama and 0 draws. The most recent ended Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama (Aug 23, 2026).

What was the Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Palmeiras at 58%. The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

How is the Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.72 for Palmeiras, 0.87 for Vasco DA Gama) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained