Eredivisie· Kick-off : Friday, October 16, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: 4-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Heerenveen 4-0 Excelsior. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Heerenveen was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.
Match analysis
Heerenveen vs Excelsior was played on Friday, October 16, 2026 (Eredivisie, matchday 9). Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen. Before kick-off, our model gave Heerenveen a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Excelsior 19%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (10.7%), ahead of 1-1 (10.5%) and 2-0 (10.1%).
Heerenveen have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 7. Excelsior have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 11. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Heerenveen score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Excelsior score 1.80 and concede 2.20. In the table, Heerenveen sit 10th with 9 points from 8 games, Excelsior 9th with 11 points from 8. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Heerenveen have averaged 1.49 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.45 for Excelsior.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Heerenveen, 2 for Excelsior and 1 draw. The most recent ended Excelsior 1-2 Heerenveen (Mar 7, 2026). Heerenveen out or doubtful: D. Proper. Excelsior: N. Naujoks (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Heerenveen or draw" stands at 81%, "Excelsior or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Heerenveen are favourites for this Heerenveen v Excelsior, with a 59% win probability from our model. On recent form, Heerenveen have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Excelsior have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. One to watch: Heerenveen will be without D. Proper.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Heerenveen – Excelsior. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (10.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Heerenveen 1-0 Excelsior | 10.7% |
| Heerenveen 1-1 Excelsior | 10.5% |
| Heerenveen 2-0 Excelsior | 10.1% |
| Heerenveen 2-1 Excelsior | 9.9% |
| Heerenveen 3-0 Excelsior | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.88 goals in total (1.90 for Heerenveen, 0.98 for Excelsior): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 53%. Heerenveen keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Excelsior in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Heerenveen expected goals | 1.90 |
| Excelsior expected goals | 0.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Heerenveen clean sheet | 38% |
| Excelsior clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Heerenveen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Telstar · Eredivisie | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Willem II · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
Excelsior
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen · Eredivisie | 1-5 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht · Eredivisie | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II · Eredivisie | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Excelsior | 9 | 11 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Excelsior 1-2 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Heerenveen 2-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Jan 19, 2024 | Excelsior 3-0 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Heerenveen 0-3 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| May 13, 2023 | Heerenveen 0-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
Out and doubtful
Heerenveen
- D. Proper (out)
Excelsior
- N. Naujoks (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Heerenveen
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Klaverboer5/5
- D. Vente5/5
- J. Trenskow5/5
- M. Rivera5/5
- M. Willemsen5/5
- N. Courtens5/5
- O. Braude5/5
- S. Kersten5/5
- V. Zagaritis5/5
- L. Smans3/5
- R. Meerveld3/5
Excelsior
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Thorsteinsson5/5
- C. Widell5/5
- D. Garden5/5
- E. da Silva Moreira5/5
- I. Yegoian5/5
- J. Plug5/5
- L. Hartjes5/5
- R. Meissen5/5
- S. van Gassel5/5
- A. Sliti4/5
- S. Janssen4/5
Other matches in this competition
- ADO Den Haag – PSV EindhovenOct 17, 2026
- Telstar – FeyenoordOct 17, 2026
- Sparta Rotterdam – Willem IIOct 17, 2026
- PEC Zwolle – GO Ahead EaglesOct 18, 2026
- Cambuur – AZ AlkmaarOct 18, 2026
- Groningen – AjaxOct 18, 2026
- NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna SittardOct 18, 2026
- Twente – UtrechtOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Heerenveen a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Excelsior 19%. Heerenveen are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
1-0 (10.7%), followed by 1-1 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
The probability that both Heerenveen and Excelsior score is 53%. Heerenveen have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Excelsior 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
The model expects 2.88 goals (1.90 for Heerenveen, 0.98 for Excelsior). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 33%.
When and where is Heerenveen vs Excelsior played?
Friday, October 16, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Eredivisie, matchday 9. Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen.
What form are Heerenveen and Excelsior in?
Heerenveen: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Excelsior: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Excelsior?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Heerenveen, 2 for Excelsior and 1 draw. The most recent ended Excelsior 1-2 Heerenveen (Mar 7, 2026).
What was the Heerenveen vs Excelsior result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Heerenveen 4-0 Excelsior. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Heerenveen was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.
How is the Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.90 for Heerenveen, 0.98 for Excelsior) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Heerenveen predictions
- All Excelsior predictions
- Eredivisie predictions
- Heerenveen cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology