Liga MX· Kick-off : Monday, November 2, 2026, 01:10 (UK time)
Cruz Azul vs Leon: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Cruz Azul was the model's favourite outcome (67%). The exact score 2-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (8.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (72%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (80%): correct.
Match analysis
Cruz Azul vs Leon was played on Monday, November 2, 2026 (Liga MX). Venue: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. Before kick-off, our model gave Cruz Azul a 67% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Leon 17%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (8.0%), ahead of 3-1 (7.6%) and 2-2 (5.7%).
Cruz Azul are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 13 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Leon have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Recent momentum is clearly with Cruz Azul. On average Cruz Azul score 2.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Leon score 1.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, Cruz Azul sit 4th with 26 points from 14 games, Leon 7th with 22 points from 14. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Cruz Azul have averaged 2.29 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.81 for Leon.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cruz Azul, 1 for Leon and 0 draws. The most recent ended Leon 2-1 Cruz Azul (Jan 11, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cruz Azul or draw" stands at 83%, "Leon or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : Cruz Azul are favourites for this Cruz Azul v Leon, with a 67% win probability from our model. On recent form, Cruz Azul have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Leon have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cruz Azul – Leon. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon | 8.0% |
| Cruz Azul 3-1 Leon | 7.6% |
| Cruz Azul 2-2 Leon | 5.7% |
| Cruz Azul 1-1 Leon | 5.6% |
| Cruz Azul 2-0 Leon | 5.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.31 goals in total (2.87 for Cruz Azul, 1.44 for Leon): over 2.5 goals has a 80% probability and both teams to score 72%. Everything points to an open game. Cruz Azul keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Leon in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cruz Azul expected goals | 2.87 |
| Leon expected goals | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63% |
| Cruz Azul clean sheet | 24% |
| Leon clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cruz Azul
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026 | Club Queretaro · Liga MX | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 22, 2026 | CF Pachuca · Liga MX | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | FC Juarez · Liga MX | 5-0 | W |
| Oct 12, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX | 3-3 | D |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Club America · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Leon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Toluca · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Tigres UANL · Liga MX | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Club America · Liga MX | 3-5 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Puebla · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 28, 2026 | FC Juarez · Liga MX | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 4 | 26 | 14 |
| Leon | 7 | 22 | 14 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Leon 2-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Cruz Azul 4-1 Leon | Liga MX |
Out and doubtful
Cruz Azul
No absences reported.
Leon
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Cruz Azul
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Palavecino4/4
- E. Lira4/4
- O. Campos4/4
- A. Garcia3/4
- A. Gudino3/4
- C. Rodriguez3/4
- G. Piovi3/4
- N. Ibanez3/4
- A. Montano2/4
- A. Montes2/4
- A. Mozo2/4
Leon
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Moreno5/5
- J. Guevara5/5
- J. Romana5/5
- E. Guerra4/5
- F. Beltran Cruz4/5
- I. Diaz4/5
- D. Arcila3/5
- D. Cambindo3/5
- I. Rodriguez3/5
- J. Lara3/5
- O. Garcia3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Club America 1-1 Club TijuanaOct 29, 2026
- Atletico San Luis 0-1 AtlasOct 31, 2026
- FC Juarez 3-1 Club QueretaroOct 31, 2026
- Puebla 1-2 U.N.A.M. - PumasOct 31, 2026
- CF Pachuca 3-0 Tigres UANLOct 31, 2026
- Monterrey 3-3 Club TijuanaNov 1, 2026
- Guadalajara Chivas 4-2 Atlante FCNov 1, 2026
- Club America 2-2 TolucaNov 1, 2026
- Santos Laguna 1-0 NecaxaNov 1, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cruz Azul vs Leon prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Cruz Azul a 67% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Leon 17%. Cruz Azul are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Cruz Azul vs Leon?
2-1 (8.0%), followed by 3-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (5.7%), 1-1 (5.6%) and 2-0 (5.5%).
Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Leon?
The probability that both Cruz Azul and Leon score is 72%. Cruz Azul have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Leon 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Cruz Azul vs Leon?
The model expects 4.31 goals (2.87 for Cruz Azul, 1.44 for Leon). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 80%, over 3.5 goals 63%.
When and where is Cruz Azul vs Leon played?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 01:10 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City.
What form are Cruz Azul and Leon in?
Cruz Azul: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 5 conceded). Leon: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cruz Azul and Leon?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cruz Azul, 1 for Leon and 0 draws. The most recent ended Leon 2-1 Cruz Azul (Jan 11, 2026).
What was the Cruz Azul vs Leon result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Cruz Azul was the model's favourite outcome (67%). The exact score 2-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (8.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (72%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (80%): correct.
How is the Cruz Azul vs Leon prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.87 for Cruz Azul, 1.44 for Leon) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.