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Liga MXLiga MX· Kick-off : Sunday, October 25, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)

Leon vs Toluca prediction: correct score and AI tips

LeonLeon–TolucaToluca

Match analysis

Liga MX: the Leon vs Toluca match is scheduled on Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio León, Leon. The edge goes to Leon (58%), ahead of the draw (21%) and a Toluca win (21%).

Over their last 5 matches, Leon have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Toluca have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 11. Recent momentum is clearly with Leon. On average Leon score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Toluca score 1.80 and concede 2.20. In the table, Leon sit 6th with 18 points from 11 games, Toluca 3rd with 20 points from 11. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Leon have averaged 1.81 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.24 for Toluca.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Leon, 3 for Toluca and 2 draws. The most recent ended Toluca 4-1 Leon (Apr 26, 2026). In double chance terms, "Leon or draw" stands at 79%, "Toluca or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 79%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

58%
Leon (Win)
21%
Draw
21%
Toluca (Win)

Double chance

79%
Leon or draw
42%
Toluca or draw
79%
No draw

Exact score and goal markets 🔒

The most likely exact score, the top 5 scorelines, expected goals and the both-teams-to-score and over/under probabilities are part of the full prediction. They will be published here as a review once the match is over.

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Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Leon

DateOpponentScore
Oct 10, 2026Puebla · Liga MX1-1D
Sep 28, 2026FC Juarez · Liga MX2-1W
Sep 21, 2026Club Queretaro · Liga MX1-1D
Sep 15, 2026Atletico San Luis · Liga MX2-0W
Sep 11, 2026U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX1-3L

Toluca

DateOpponentScore
Oct 10, 2026Tigres UANL · Liga MX2-3L
Oct 4, 2026Monterrey · Club Friendlies1-2L
Sep 26, 2026Cruz Azul · Liga MX3-3D
Sep 21, 2026Santos Laguna · Liga MX2-3L
Sep 16, 2026Puebla · Liga MX1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Leon61811
Toluca32011

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 26, 2026Toluca 4-1 LeonLiga MX
Oct 5, 2025Leon 2-4 TolucaLiga MX
Feb 9, 2025Leon 3-3 TolucaLiga MX
Nov 2, 2024Toluca 2-2 LeonLiga MX
Feb 3, 2024Toluca 4-1 LeonLiga MX

Out and doubtful

Leon

No absences reported.

Toluca

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Leon

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • I. Moreno5/5
  • J. Romana5/5
  • D. Cambindo4/5
  • I. Rodriguez4/5
  • J. Cortizo4/5
  • J. Guevara4/5
  • D. Arcila3/5
  • F. Beltran Cruz3/5
  • I. Diaz3/5
  • J. Lara3/5
  • O. Garcia3/5

Toluca

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • Bruno Mendez4/4
  • F. Pereira4/4
  • L. Garcia4/4
  • N. Castro4/4
  • Paulinho4/4
  • A. Vega3/4
  • D. Barbosa3/4
  • J. Gallardo3/4
  • B. A. Garcia Caprizo2/4
  • E. del Villar2/4
  • F. Romero2/4

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See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

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Frequently asked questions

What is the Leon vs Toluca prediction?

Our AI gives Leon a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Toluca 21%. Leon are therefore favourites.

When and where is Leon vs Toluca played?

Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio León, Leon.

What form are Leon and Toluca in?

Leon: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Toluca: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 11 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Leon and Toluca?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Leon, 3 for Toluca and 2 draws. The most recent ended Toluca 4-1 Leon (Apr 26, 2026).

Go further

Key terms explained