Liga MX· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)
Puebla vs Leon prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Puebla take on Leon on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), a Liga MX fixture. Venue: Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla. The edge goes to Puebla (46%), ahead of the draw (26%) and a Leon win (28%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
Puebla have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Leon have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Leon. On average Puebla score 1.00 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Leon score 1.60 and concede 0.80. In the table, Puebla sit 8th with 14 points from 9 games, Leon 7th with 14 points from 9. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Puebla, 1 for Leon and 0 draws. The most recent ended Puebla 0-1 Leon (Apr 11, 2026). In double chance terms, "Puebla or draw" stands at 72%, "Leon or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Puebla are favourites for this Puebla v Leon, with a 46% win probability from our model. On recent form, Puebla have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Leon have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Puebla – Leon. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Puebla 1-1 Leon | 12.1% |
| Puebla 1-0 Leon | 10.6% |
| Puebla 2-1 Leon | 9.2% |
| Puebla 2-0 Leon | 8.1% |
| Puebla 0-1 Leon | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.67 goals in total (1.53 for Puebla, 1.14 for Leon): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 53%. Puebla keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Leon in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Puebla expected goals | 1.53 |
| Leon expected goals | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Puebla clean sheet | 32% |
| Leon clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Puebla
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | Austin · Leagues Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Portland Timbers · Leagues Cup | 2-5 | L |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Cruz Azul · Liga MX | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 18, 2026 | FC Juarez · Liga MX | 1-0 | W |
Leon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | Toluca · Leagues Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Atlante FC · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Real Salt Lake · Leagues Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monterrey · Liga MX | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Necaxa · Liga MX | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puebla | 8 | 14 | 9 |
| Leon | 7 | 14 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Puebla 0-1 Leon | Liga MX |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Leon 1-2 Puebla | Liga MX |
Out and doubtful
Puebla
No absences reported.
Leon
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Puebla
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Organista4/5
- D. Gutierrez4/5
- E. Gomez4/5
- J. Vargas4/5
- F. Almada3/5
- F. Monarrez3/5
- I. Moreno3/5
- K. Velasco3/5
- A. Herrera2/5
- A. Leyva2/5
- A. Ramirez2/5
Leon
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Cambindo5/5
- F. Beltran Cruz5/5
- J. Guevara5/5
- O. Garcia5/5
- S. Vegas5/5
- D. Arcila4/5
- I. Rodriguez4/5
- J. Cortizo4/5
- J. Romana4/5
- R. Echeverria4/5
- I. Moreno3/5
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See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
Frequently asked questions
What is the Puebla vs Leon prediction?
Our AI gives Puebla a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Leon 28%. Puebla are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Puebla vs Leon?
1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.1%) and 0-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Puebla vs Leon?
The probability that both Puebla and Leon score is 53%. Puebla have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Leon 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Puebla vs Leon?
The model expects 2.67 goals (1.53 for Puebla, 1.14 for Leon). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Puebla vs Leon played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla.
What form are Puebla and Leon in?
Puebla: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 11 conceded). Leon: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Puebla and Leon?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Puebla, 1 for Leon and 0 draws. The most recent ended Puebla 0-1 Leon (Apr 11, 2026).
How is the Puebla vs Leon prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.53 for Puebla, 1.14 for Leon) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.