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Liga MXLiga MX· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 04:00 (UK time)

Tigres UANL vs Toluca prediction: correct score and AI tips

Tigres UANLTigres UANL–TolucaToluca

Match analysis

Liga MX: Tigres UANL vs Toluca kicks off on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los Garza. With a 89% win probability, Toluca go in as strong favourites against Tigres UANL (4%), with the draw rated at 7%. The most likely correct score is 0-3 (7.7%), ahead of 0-4 (7.7%) and 1-3 (7.2%).

Tigres UANL have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 3 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Toluca have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Toluca. On average Tigres UANL score 0.60 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Toluca score 2.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Tigres UANL sit 16th with 7 points from 9 games, Toluca 1st with 19 points from 9. 15 places separate the two sides.

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Tigres UANL, 1 for Toluca and 1 draw. The most recent ended Tigres UANL 0-0 Toluca (Jan 18, 2026). In double chance terms, "Tigres UANL or draw" stands at 11%, "Toluca or draw" at 96% and "no draw" at 93%.

In short : Toluca are favourites for this Tigres UANL v Toluca, with a 89% win probability from our model. In the table, Tigres UANL (16th, 7 pts) host Toluca (1st, 19 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-3.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

4%
Tigres UANL (Win)
7%
Draw
89%
Toluca (Win)

Double chance

11%
Tigres UANL or draw
96%
Toluca or draw
93%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Tigres UANL – Toluca. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (7.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Tigres UANL 0-3 Toluca7.7%
Tigres UANL 0-4 Toluca7.7%
Tigres UANL 1-3 Toluca7.2%
Tigres UANL 1-4 Toluca7.2%
Tigres UANL 0-5 Toluca6.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 4.93 goals in total (0.93 for Tigres UANL, 4.00 for Toluca): over 2.5 goals has a 87% probability and both teams to score 59%. Everything points to an open game. Tigres UANL keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, Toluca in 39%.

Probability
Tigres UANL expected goals0.93
Toluca expected goals4.00
Both teams to score59%
Over 1.5 goals96%
Over 2.5 goals87%
Over 3.5 goals73%
Tigres UANL clean sheet2%
Toluca clean sheet39%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Tigres UANL

DateOpponentScore
Sep 19, 2026FC Juarez · Liga MX0-2L
Sep 13, 2026Monterrey · Liga MX0-0D
Sep 6, 2026Necaxa · Liga MX1-1D
Aug 30, 2026Santos Laguna · Liga MX0-0D
Aug 22, 2026Atlante FC · Liga MX2-0W

Toluca

DateOpponentScore
Sep 21, 2026Santos Laguna · Liga MX2-3L
Sep 16, 2026Puebla · Liga MX1-0W
Sep 13, 2026Atlas · Liga MX5-2W
Sep 7, 2026Monterrey · Leagues Cup2-0W
Sep 3, 2026Leon · Leagues Cup2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Tigres UANL1679
Toluca1199

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 18, 2026Tigres UANL 0-0 TolucaLiga MX
Dec 15, 2025Toluca 2-1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
Dec 12, 2025Tigres UANL 1-0 TolucaLiga MX
Jul 27, 2025Toluca 3-4 Tigres UANLLiga MX

Out and doubtful

Tigres UANL

No absences reported.

Toluca

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Tigres UANL

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Franco5/5
  • J. Brunetta5/5
  • J. Garza5/5
  • R. Aguirre5/5
  • D. Lainez4/5
  • Joaquim4/5
  • N. Guzman4/5
  • Romulo4/5
  • F. Gorriaran3/5
  • R. Monreal3/5
  • D. A. Sanchez Guevara2/5

Toluca

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • F. Pereira5/5
  • F. Vinas5/5
  • J. Gallardo5/5
  • N. Castro5/5
  • A. Vega4/5
  • Bruno Mendez4/5
  • E. del Villar4/5
  • F. Romero4/5
  • D. Barbosa3/5
  • Helinho3/5
  • J. Angulo3/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Tigres UANL vs Toluca prediction?

Our AI gives Tigres UANL a 4% chance of winning, the draw 7% and Toluca 89%. Toluca are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

0-3 (7.7%), followed by 0-4 (7.7%), 1-3 (7.2%), 1-4 (7.2%) and 0-5 (6.2%).

Will both teams score in Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

The probability that both Tigres UANL and Toluca score is 59%. Tigres UANL have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Toluca 39%.

How many goals should we expect in Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

The model expects 4.93 goals (0.93 for Tigres UANL, 4.00 for Toluca). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 96%, over 2.5 goals 87%, over 3.5 goals 73%.

When and where is Tigres UANL vs Toluca played?

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:00 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los Garza.

What form are Tigres UANL and Toluca in?

Tigres UANL: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 3 conceded). Toluca: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Tigres UANL and Toluca?

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Tigres UANL, 1 for Toluca and 1 draw. The most recent ended Tigres UANL 0-0 Toluca (Jan 18, 2026).

How is the Tigres UANL vs Toluca prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.93 for Tigres UANL, 4.00 for Toluca) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained