Senegal Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Jaraaf vs AJEL prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 1: the Jaraaf vs AJEL match is scheduled on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time). Venue: Stade de Diaraf, Dakar. Jaraaf start as favourites with a 51% chance of victory; AJEL are given 24% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Jaraaf are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 5 and conceding 0. Over their last 5 matches, AJEL have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Jaraaf score 1.00 and concede 0.00 goals per game; AJEL score 1.00 and concede 0.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Jaraaf and AJEL: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Jaraaf or draw" stands at 76%, "AJEL or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Jaraaf are favourites for this Jaraaf v AJEL, with a 51% win probability from our model. On recent form, Jaraaf have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5 while AJEL have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Jaraaf – AJEL. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaraaf 1-1 AJEL | 11.8% |
| Jaraaf 1-0 AJEL | 11.4% |
| Jaraaf 2-1 AJEL | 9.5% |
| Jaraaf 2-0 AJEL | 9.2% |
| Jaraaf 0-1 AJEL | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.61 expected goals for Jaraaf and 1.04 for AJEL, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Jaraaf keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, AJEL in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Jaraaf expected goals | 1.61 |
| AJEL expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Jaraaf clean sheet | 35% |
| AJEL clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Jaraaf
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | AS Camberene · Senegal Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| May 22, 2026 | Casa Sport · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| May 17, 2026 | DSC · Senegal Ligue 1 | 3-0 | W |
| May 13, 2026 | Pikine · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| May 10, 2026 | Sonacos · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
AJEL
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Génération Foot · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| May 22, 2026 | La Linguère · Senegal Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| May 17, 2026 | Gorée · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| May 13, 2026 | Guédiawaye · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| May 10, 2026 | Teungueth · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaraaf | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| AJEL | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Jaraaf and AJEL: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Jaraaf
No absences reported.
AJEL
No absences reported.
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Teungueth – OuakamOct 3, 2026
- Wally Daan – Stade de MbourOct 3, 2026
- Gorée – La LinguèreOct 4, 2026
- HLM – Casa SportOct 4, 2026
- Génération Foot – PikineOct 4, 2026
- Guédiawaye – DSCOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Jaraaf vs AJEL prediction?
Our AI gives Jaraaf a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AJEL 24%. Jaraaf are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Jaraaf vs AJEL?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Jaraaf vs AJEL?
The probability that both Jaraaf and AJEL score is 52%. Jaraaf have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AJEL 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Jaraaf vs AJEL?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for Jaraaf, 1.04 for AJEL). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Jaraaf vs AJEL played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 1. Venue: Stade de Diaraf, Dakar.
What form are Jaraaf and AJEL in?
Jaraaf: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 0 conceded). AJEL: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 3 conceded).
How is the Jaraaf vs AJEL prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Jaraaf, 1.04 for AJEL) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Jaraaf predictions
- All AJEL predictions
- Senegal Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology