Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 22:30 (UK time)
Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Atletico-MG take on RB Bragantino on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), a Brasileirão Série A, matchday 21 fixture. Venue: MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte. RB Bragantino start as favourites with a 50% chance of victory; Atletico-MG are given 22% and the draw 28%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (15.8%), followed by 1-1 (12.5%) and 0-0 (11.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico-MG have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. RB Bragantino have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Atletico-MG score 1.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; RB Bragantino score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Atletico-MG sit 7th with 40 points from 27 games, RB Bragantino 10th with 36 points from 27. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Atletico-MG have averaged 0.65 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.66 for RB Bragantino.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Atletico-MG, 2 for RB Bragantino and 0 draws. The most recent ended RB Bragantino 1-0 Atletico-MG (Feb 4, 2026). Atletico-MG out or doubtful: Everson, Reinier and Ruan Tressoldi. RB Bragantino: Davi Gomes, Juninho Capixaba (suspended) and Wallace Yan (suspended). In double chance terms, "Atletico-MG or draw" stands at 50%, "RB Bragantino or draw" at 78% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : RB Bragantino are favourites for this Atletico-MG v RB Bragantino, with a 50% win probability from our model. In the table, Atletico-MG (7th, 40 pts) host RB Bragantino (10th, 36 pts). One to watch: Atletico-MG will be without Everson and Reinier.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico-MG – RB Bragantino. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (15.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico-MG 0-1 RB Bragantino | 15.8% |
| Atletico-MG 1-1 RB Bragantino | 12.5% |
| Atletico-MG 0-0 RB Bragantino | 11.6% |
| Atletico-MG 0-2 RB Bragantino | 10.8% |
| Atletico-MG 1-0 RB Bragantino | 9.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.79 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 1.36 for RB Bragantino, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 36% and "both teams to score" at 41%. Few goals are expected here. Atletico-MG keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, RB Bragantino in 45%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico-MG expected goals | 0.79 |
| RB Bragantino expected goals | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Atletico-MG clean sheet | 26% |
| RB Bragantino clean sheet | 45% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico-MG
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Santos · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 4-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Santos · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A | 0-2 | L |
RB Bragantino
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Botafogo · Brasileirão Série A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bahia · Brasileirão Série A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Sao Paulo · Brasileirão Série A | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Gremio · Brasileirão Série A | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 7 | 40 | 27 |
| RB Bragantino | 10 | 36 | 27 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | RB Bragantino 1-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Nov 16, 2025 | RB Bragantino 2-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Atletico-MG 2-1 RB Bragantino | Serie A |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Atletico-MG 3-0 RB Bragantino | Serie A |
| Jun 12, 2024 | RB Bragantino 1-2 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Atletico-MG
- Everson (out)
- Reinier (out)
- Ruan Tressoldi (out)
RB Bragantino
- Davi Gomes (out)
- Juninho Capixaba (suspended)
- Wallace Yan (suspended)
Most regular starters
Atletico-MG
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Bernard5/5
- Gabriel Delfim5/5
- A. Franco4/5
- Fred4/5
- K. Castano3/5
- Maycon3/5
- Natanael3/5
- Reinier3/5
- Vitor Hugo3/5
- Alexsander2/5
- Cuello2/5
RB Bragantino
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Gustavo Marques5/5
- Lucas Barbosa5/5
- Tiago Volpi5/5
- Eric Ramires4/5
- I. Pitta4/5
- Juninho Capixaba4/5
- Rodriguinho4/5
- A. Sant'Anna3/5
- Fabinho3/5
- J. Herrera3/5
- Fernando Santos2/5
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See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino prediction?
Our AI gives Atletico-MG a 22% chance of winning, the draw 28% and RB Bragantino 50%. RB Bragantino are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino?
0-1 (15.8%), followed by 1-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.8%) and 1-0 (9.2%).
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino?
The probability that both Atletico-MG and RB Bragantino score is 41%. Atletico-MG have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, RB Bragantino 45%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino?
The model expects 2.15 goals (0.79 for Atletico-MG, 1.36 for RB Bragantino). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 21. Venue: MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte.
What form are Atletico-MG and RB Bragantino in?
Atletico-MG: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded). RB Bragantino: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and RB Bragantino?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Atletico-MG, 2 for RB Bragantino and 0 draws. The most recent ended RB Bragantino 1-0 Atletico-MG (Feb 4, 2026).
How is the Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.79 for Atletico-MG, 1.36 for RB Bragantino) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico-MG predictions
- All RB Bragantino predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology