Brasileirão Série A· Kick-off : Saturday, October 3, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)
Sao Paulo vs Santos prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Sao Paulo take on Santos on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), a Brasileirão Série A, matchday 21 fixture. Venue: Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo start as favourites with a 47% chance of victory; Santos are given 29% and the draw 24%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (10.8%), followed by 2-1 (9.4%) and 1-0 (8.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sao Paulo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Santos have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Santos therefore arrive in far better shape than Sao Paulo. On average Sao Paulo score 1.00 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Santos score 2.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Sao Paulo sit 11th with 36 points from 27 games, Santos 8th with 38 points from 27. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Sao Paulo have averaged 1.67 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.36 for Santos.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sao Paulo, 0 for Santos and 1 draw. The most recent ended Santos 1-1 Sao Paulo (Feb 4, 2026). Sao Paulo out or doubtful: D. Bobadilla, Lucas Moura, Lucca Marques, Luis Osorio (suspended) and Pablo Maia (suspended). Santos: A. Barreal, Coutinho, Everton (suspended), Gabriel Brazao, Neymar, Vinicius Lira and Willian Arao. In double chance terms, "Sao Paulo or draw" stands at 71%, "Santos or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Our model backs Sao Paulo to edge Santos (47% probability). On recent form, Sao Paulo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Santos are in good shape (4 wins in 5). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 59%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sao Paulo – Santos. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sao Paulo 1-1 Santos | 10.8% |
| Sao Paulo 2-1 Santos | 9.4% |
| Sao Paulo 1-0 Santos | 8.3% |
| Sao Paulo 2-0 Santos | 7.2% |
| Sao Paulo 1-2 Santos | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.73 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.31 for Santos, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 59% and "both teams to score" at 60%. Goals look likely in this one. Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 27% of scenarios, Santos in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sao Paulo expected goals | 1.73 |
| Santos expected goals | 1.31 |
| Both teams to score | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% |
| Sao Paulo clean sheet | 27% |
| Santos clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sao Paulo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Palmeiras · Brasileirão Série A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | RB Bragantino · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
Santos
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Remo · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-4 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Atletico-MG · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Internacional · Brasileirão Série A | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 11 | 36 | 27 |
| Santos | 8 | 38 | 27 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | Santos 1-1 Sao Paulo | Brasileirão Série A |
Out and doubtful
Sao Paulo
- D. Bobadilla (out)
- Lucas Moura (out)
- Lucca Marques (out)
- Luis Osorio (suspended)
- Pablo Maia (suspended)
Santos
- A. Barreal (out)
- Coutinho (out)
- Everton (suspended)
- Gabriel Brazao (out)
- Neymar (out)
- Vinicius Lira (out)
- Willian Arao (out)
Most regular starters
Sao Paulo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Artur4/5
- Luciano4/5
- Rafael4/5
- Sabino4/5
- Danielzinho3/5
- Domingos Duarte3/5
- Lucas Ramon3/5
- Marcos Antônio3/5
- Robert Arboleda3/5
- Gustavo Santana2/5
- Iago Borduchi2/5
Santos
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Gabriel Bontempo5/5
- Luan Peres5/5
- B. Rollheiser4/5
- G. Escobar4/5
- Gabriel Barbosa4/5
- Rodinei4/5
- C. Oliva3/5
- Gabriel Brazao3/5
- Gustavo Henrique3/5
- Rony3/5
- Willian Arao3/5
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Sao Paulo vs Santos prediction?
Our AI gives Sao Paulo a 47% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Santos 29%. Sao Paulo are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Sao Paulo vs Santos?
1-1 (10.8%), followed by 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%), 2-0 (7.2%) and 1-2 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Santos?
The probability that both Sao Paulo and Santos score is 60%. Sao Paulo have a 27% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Santos 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Sao Paulo vs Santos?
The model expects 3.04 goals (1.73 for Sao Paulo, 1.31 for Santos). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 36%.
When and where is Sao Paulo vs Santos played?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), Brasileirão Série A, matchday 21. Venue: Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo.
What form are Sao Paulo and Santos in?
Sao Paulo: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded). Santos: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Santos?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sao Paulo, 0 for Santos and 1 draw. The most recent ended Santos 1-1 Sao Paulo (Feb 4, 2026).
How is the Sao Paulo vs Santos prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.73 for Sao Paulo, 1.31 for Santos) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sao Paulo predictions
- All Santos predictions
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology