Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Derby vs Stoke City prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Championship, matchday 11: the Derby vs Stoke City match is scheduled on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). Venue: Pride Park, Derby. With a 60% win probability, Stoke City go in as strong favourites against Derby (15%), with the draw rated at 25%.
Derby have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 10 and conceding 3. Recent momentum is clearly with Stoke City. On average Derby score 0.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Stoke City score 2.00 and concede 0.60. In the table, Derby sit 23rd with 6 points from 9 games, Stoke City 4th with 16 points from 9. 19 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Derby have averaged 0.91 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.04 for Stoke City.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Derby, 1 for Stoke City and 0 draws. The most recent ended Derby 2-0 Stoke City (Apr 6, 2026). Derby out or doubtful: P. Agyemang, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, D. Murkin, C. Taylor and J. Widell Zetterstrom. Stoke City: A. Cresswell, S. Ingelsson and M. Talovierov (suspended). In double chance terms, "Derby or draw" stands at 40%, "Stoke City or draw" at 85% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Exact score and goal markets 🔒
The most likely exact score, the top 5 scorelines, expected goals and the both-teams-to-score and over/under probabilities are part of the full prediction. They will be published here as a review once the match is over.
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Derby
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 2-0 | W |
Stoke City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Watford · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Cardiff · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 23 | 6 | 9 |
| Stoke City | 4 | 16 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Derby 2-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Stoke City 3-1 Derby | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Derby
- P. Agyemang (out)
- M. Clarke (out)
- C. Forsyth (out)
- D. Murkin (out)
- C. Taylor (out)
- J. Widell Zetterstrom (out)
Stoke City
- A. Cresswell (out)
- S. Ingelsson (out)
- M. Talovierov (suspended)
Most regular starters
Derby
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Taylor5/5
- S. Szmodics5/5
- A. Mowatt4/5
- B. Clark4/5
- D. Sanderson4/5
- J. Widell Zetterstrom4/5
- R. Hedges4/5
- S. Langas4/5
- D. Ozoh3/5
- C. Morris2/5
- E. Cashin2/5
Stoke City
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Johnson5/5
- B. Wilmot5/5
- D. Soumare5/5
- E. Galbraith5/5
- L. Graham5/5
- V. Johansson5/5
- E. Bocat4/5
- J. Devenny4/5
- G. Hirst3/5
- M. Talovierov3/5
- B. Lawal2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Middlesbrough – CardiffOct 17, 2026
- Millwall – LincolnOct 17, 2026
- Watford – CharltonOct 17, 2026
- Norwich – PortsmouthOct 17, 2026
- Wrexham – PrestonOct 17, 2026
- Bristol City – Sheffield UtdOct 17, 2026
- Birmingham – QPROct 17, 2026
- Southampton – BoltonOct 17, 2026
- West Brom – BlackburnOct 17, 2026
- Swansea – West HamOct 17, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Derby vs Stoke City prediction?
Our AI gives Derby a 15% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Stoke City 60%. Stoke City are therefore favourites.
When and where is Derby vs Stoke City played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 11. Venue: Pride Park, Derby.
What form are Derby and Stoke City in?
Derby: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded). Stoke City: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Stoke City?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Derby, 1 for Stoke City and 0 draws. The most recent ended Derby 2-0 Stoke City (Apr 6, 2026).
Go further
- All Derby predictions
- All Stoke City predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology