CAF Confederation Cup· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 16:00 (UK time)
ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
CAF Confederation Cup: ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako kicks off on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 16:00 (UK time). Venue: Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium, Zarzis. The edge goes to ES Zarzis (46%), ahead of the draw (26%) and a Réal Bamako win (28%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.2%), ahead of 1-0 (11.0%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
ES Zarzis have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Réal Bamako are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 1. Recent momentum is clearly with Réal Bamako. On average ES Zarzis score 1.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Réal Bamako score 1.40 and concede 0.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between ES Zarzis and Réal Bamako: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "ES Zarzis or draw" stands at 72%, "Réal Bamako or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Our model backs ES Zarzis to edge Réal Bamako (46% probability). On recent form, ES Zarzis are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Réal Bamako have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 52%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as ES Zarzis – Réal Bamako. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| ES Zarzis 1-1 Réal Bamako | 12.2% |
| ES Zarzis 1-0 Réal Bamako | 11.0% |
| ES Zarzis 2-1 Réal Bamako | 9.2% |
| ES Zarzis 2-0 Réal Bamako | 8.3% |
| ES Zarzis 0-1 Réal Bamako | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.61 goals in total (1.50 for ES Zarzis, 1.11 for Réal Bamako): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 52%. ES Zarzis keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Réal Bamako in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| ES Zarzis expected goals | 1.50 |
| Réal Bamako expected goals | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| ES Zarzis clean sheet | 33% |
| Réal Bamako clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
ES Zarzis
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Club Africain · Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | US Monastirienne · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Diambars · CAF Confederation Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Diambars · CAF Confederation Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | CS Sfaxien · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
Réal Bamako
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Vitesse · CAF Confederation Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Vitesse · CAF Confederation Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 13, 2026 | US Bougouba · Première Division | 4-0 | W |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Djoliba · Première Division | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Afrique Football Élite · Première Division | 0-0 | D |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between ES Zarzis and Réal Bamako: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
ES Zarzis
No absences reported.
Réal Bamako
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
ES Zarzis
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Nyengue3/3
- K. Kassab3/3
- A. Taous2/3
- B. Mokhtar2/3
- H. Ghanmi2/3
- H. Labidi2/3
- J. Belkilani2/3
- K. Sowe2/3
- L. Rjili2/3
- S. Diouf2/3
- S. Touj2/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako prediction?
Our AI gives ES Zarzis a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Réal Bamako 28%. ES Zarzis are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.3%) and 0-1 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako?
The probability that both ES Zarzis and Réal Bamako score is 52%. ES Zarzis have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Réal Bamako 22%.
How many goals should we expect in ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako?
The model expects 2.61 goals (1.50 for ES Zarzis, 1.11 for Réal Bamako). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 16:00 (UK time), CAF Confederation Cup. Venue: Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium, Zarzis.
What form are ES Zarzis and Réal Bamako in?
ES Zarzis: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded). Réal Bamako: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 1 conceded).
How is the ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.50 for ES Zarzis, 1.11 for Réal Bamako) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All ES Zarzis predictions
- All Réal Bamako predictions
- CAF Confederation Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology