FIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Saturday, July 18, 2026, 22:00 (UK time)
France vs England: 4-6 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: France 4-6 England. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for France (52%), while victory for England was rated at only 25%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (62%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (66%): correct.
Match analysis
France and England met on Saturday, July 18, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Garden, Miami. Before kick-off, our model gave France a 52% chance of winning, the draw 23% and England 25%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (9.7%), followed by 1-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (8.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, France have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, England have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average France score 2.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; England score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, France sit 1st with 9 points from 3 games, England 1st with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, France have averaged 1.98 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.34 for England.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for France, 0 for England and 1 draw. England: J. Quansah. In double chance terms, "France or draw" stands at 75%, "England or draw" at 48% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : France tops the group with a perfect 3-0 record and a +8 goal difference, while England sits second with 7 points from 2 wins and a draw. France's superior xG average (1.98 vs 1.34) and dominant head-to-head record (2 wins, 1 draw) give them the edge in this World Cup clash.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as France – England. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 41% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| France 2-1 England | 9.7% |
| France 1-1 England | 8.6% |
| France 2-0 England | 8.2% |
| France 1-0 England | 7.3% |
| France 3-1 England | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.24 expected goals for France and 1.18 for England, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 66% and "both teams to score" at 62%. Goals look likely in this one. France keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, England in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| France expected goals | 2.24 |
| England expected goals | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| France clean sheet | 31% |
| England clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
France
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Sweden · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Norway · FIFA World Cup | 4-1 | W |
England
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Norway · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Mexico · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | DR Congo · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Panama · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1 | 9 | 3 |
| England | 1 | 7 | 3 |
Head-to-head
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for France, 0 for England and 1 draw.
Out and doubtful
France
No absences reported.
England
- J. Quansah (out)
Other matches in this competition
Frequently asked questions
What is the France vs England prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave France a 52% chance of winning, the draw 23% and England 25%. France are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-6.
What is the most likely correct score for France vs England?
2-1 (9.7%), followed by 1-1 (8.6%), 2-0 (8.2%), 1-0 (7.3%) and 3-1 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in France vs England?
The probability that both France and England score is 62%. France have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, England 11%.
How many goals should we expect in France vs England?
The model expects 3.42 goals (2.24 for France, 1.18 for England). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 66%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is France vs England played?
Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 22:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Garden, Miami.
What form are France and England in?
France: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded). England: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between France and England?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for France, 0 for England and 1 draw.
What was the France vs England result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: France 4-6 England. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for France (52%), while victory for England was rated at only 25%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (62%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (66%): correct.
How is the France vs England prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.24 for France, 1.18 for England) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All France predictions
- All England predictions
- FIFA World Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology