FIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Sunday, July 19, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Spain vs Argentina: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Spain 1-0 Argentina. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Argentina (50%), while victory for Spain was rated at only 28%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): missed.
Match analysis
Spain vs Argentina was played on Sunday, July 19, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. Before kick-off, our model gave Spain a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Argentina 50%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (9.6%), ahead of 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-1 (6.8%).
Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 1. Argentina are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Spain score 1.80 and concede 0.20 goals per game; Argentina score 2.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Spain sit 1st with 7 points from 3 games, Argentina 1st with 9 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Spain have averaged 1.82 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.18 for Argentina.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Spain, 0 for Argentina and 0 draws. In double chance terms, "Spain or draw" stands at 50%, "Argentina or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Argentina arrives unbeaten with a perfect 3-0 record and superior goal difference (+7), while Spain sits second in the group with 7 points from 2 wins and 1 draw. Argentina's higher expected goals average (2.18 vs 1.82) and flawless tournament form give them the edge in this World Cup clash.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Spain – Argentina. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spain 1-1 Argentina | 9.6% |
| Spain 1-2 Argentina | 9.3% |
| Spain 0-1 Argentina | 6.8% |
| Spain 2-1 Argentina | 6.8% |
| Spain 0-2 Argentina | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.35 goals in total (1.41 for Spain, 1.94 for Argentina): over 2.5 goals has a 65% probability and both teams to score 65%. Everything points to an open game. Spain keep a clean sheet in 14% of scenarios, Argentina in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Spain expected goals | 1.41 |
| Argentina expected goals | 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% |
| Spain clean sheet | 14% |
| Argentina clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Spain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Belgium · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Austria · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Uruguay · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
Argentina
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Switzerland · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Egypt · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Cape Verde · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Jordan · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 1 | 7 | 3 |
| Argentina | 1 | 9 | 3 |
Head-to-head
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Spain, 0 for Argentina and 0 draws.
Out and doubtful
Spain
No absences reported.
Argentina
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
Frequently asked questions
What is the Spain vs Argentina prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Spain a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Argentina 50%. Argentina are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Spain vs Argentina?
1-1 (9.6%), followed by 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (6.8%), 2-1 (6.8%) and 0-2 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Spain vs Argentina?
The probability that both Spain and Argentina score is 65%. Spain have a 14% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Argentina 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Spain vs Argentina?
The model expects 3.35 goals (1.41 for Spain, 1.94 for Argentina). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 65%, over 3.5 goals 43%.
When and where is Spain vs Argentina played?
Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford.
What form are Spain and Argentina in?
Spain: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 1 conceded). Argentina: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Spain and Argentina?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Spain, 0 for Argentina and 0 draws.
What was the Spain vs Argentina result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Spain 1-0 Argentina. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Argentina (50%), while victory for Spain was rated at only 28%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (65%): missed.
How is the Spain vs Argentina prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.41 for Spain, 1.94 for Argentina) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Spain predictions
- All Argentina predictions
- FIFA World Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology