FIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Wednesday, July 15, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
England vs Argentina: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: England 1-2 Argentina. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Argentina was the model's favourite outcome (44%). The exact score 1-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (8.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (71%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): correct.
Match analysis
England vs Argentina was played on Wednesday, July 15, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. Before kick-off, our model gave England a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Argentina 44%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (8.6%), ahead of 1-1 (8.1%) and 2-2 (7.1%).
England are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 9 and conceding 4. Argentina are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average England score 1.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Argentina score 2.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, England sit 1st with 7 points from 3 games, Argentina 1st with 9 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, England have averaged 1.51 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.29 for Argentina.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between England and Argentina: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. England out or doubtful: J. Henderson and J. Quansah. In double chance terms, "England or draw" stands at 56%, "Argentina or draw" at 68% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Argentina arrives unbeaten with 3 wins from 3 group matches and a superior expected goals average of 2.29 compared to England's 1.51, though England's defensive record remains solid with only 1 draw blemishing their campaign. This high-stakes knockout encounter pits Argentina's perfect form and goal-scoring prowess against England's consistency and top-group positioning.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as England – Argentina. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 37% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| England 1-2 Argentina | 8.6% |
| England 1-1 Argentina | 8.1% |
| England 2-2 Argentina | 7.1% |
| England 2-1 Argentina | 6.7% |
| England 1-3 Argentina | 6.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.75 goals in total (1.65 for England, 2.10 for Argentina): over 2.5 goals has a 72% probability and both teams to score 71%. Everything points to an open game. England keep a clean sheet in 12% of scenarios, Argentina in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| England expected goals | 1.65 |
| Argentina expected goals | 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 71% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% |
| England clean sheet | 12% |
| Argentina clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
England
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Norway · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Mexico · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | DR Congo · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Panama · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Ghana · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
Argentina
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2026 | Switzerland · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Egypt · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Cape Verde · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Jordan · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Austria · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 1 | 7 | 3 |
| Argentina | 1 | 9 | 3 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between England and Argentina: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
England
- J. Henderson (out)
- J. Quansah (out)
Argentina
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Norway 1-2 EnglandJul 11, 2026
- Argentina 3-1 SwitzerlandJul 12, 2026
- France 0-2 SpainJul 14, 2026
- France 4-6 EnglandJul 18, 2026
- Spain 1-0 ArgentinaJul 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the England vs Argentina prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave England a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Argentina 44%. Argentina are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for England vs Argentina?
1-2 (8.6%), followed by 1-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.1%), 2-1 (6.7%) and 1-3 (6.0%).
Will both teams score in England vs Argentina?
The probability that both England and Argentina score is 71%. England have a 12% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Argentina 19%.
How many goals should we expect in England vs Argentina?
The model expects 3.75 goals (1.65 for England, 2.10 for Argentina). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 72%, over 3.5 goals 52%.
When and where is England vs Argentina played?
Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.
What form are England and Argentina in?
England: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded). Argentina: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 6 conceded).
What was the England vs Argentina result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: England 1-2 Argentina. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Argentina was the model's favourite outcome (44%). The exact score 1-2 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (8.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (71%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): correct.
How is the England vs Argentina prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.65 for England, 2.10 for Argentina) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All England predictions
- All Argentina predictions
- FIFA World Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology