Senegal Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
HLM vs Casa Sport: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: HLM 2-2 Casa Sport. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for HLM (51%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
Match analysis
HLM vs Casa Sport was played on Saturday, October 17, 2026 (Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 1). Before kick-off, our model gave HLM a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Casa Sport 24%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.8%), ahead of 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
HLM have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 3 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Casa Sport have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average HLM score 0.60 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Casa Sport score 1.20 and concede 0.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between HLM and Casa Sport: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "HLM or draw" stands at 76%, "Casa Sport or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : HLM are tipped by our AI model in this HLM v Casa Sport (51%). On recent form, HLM have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Casa Sport have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as HLM – Casa Sport. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| HLM 1-1 Casa Sport | 11.8% |
| HLM 1-0 Casa Sport | 11.4% |
| HLM 2-1 Casa Sport | 9.5% |
| HLM 2-0 Casa Sport | 9.2% |
| HLM 0-1 Casa Sport | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.61 for HLM, 1.04 for Casa Sport): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. HLM keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Casa Sport in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| HLM expected goals | 1.61 |
| Casa Sport expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| HLM clean sheet | 35% |
| Casa Sport clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
HLM
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Pikine · Senegal Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| May 22, 2026 | Sonacos · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| May 17, 2026 | Génération Foot · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| May 13, 2026 | La Linguère · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| May 10, 2026 | Gorée · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
Casa Sport
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | DSC · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| May 22, 2026 | Jaraaf · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| May 17, 2026 | Pikine · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| May 13, 2026 | Sonacos · Senegal Ligue 1 | 3-0 | W |
| May 10, 2026 | Génération Foot · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HLM | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Casa Sport | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between HLM and Casa Sport: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
HLM
No absences reported.
Casa Sport
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Génération Foot 3-0 PikineOct 17, 2026
- Gorée 2-0 La LinguèreOct 17, 2026
- Wally Daan 0-0 Stade de MbourOct 17, 2026
- Jaraaf 1-1 AJELOct 17, 2026
- Guédiawaye 2-1 DSCOct 17, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the HLM vs Casa Sport prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave HLM a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Casa Sport 24%. HLM are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for HLM vs Casa Sport?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in HLM vs Casa Sport?
The probability that both HLM and Casa Sport score is 52%. HLM have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Casa Sport 20%.
How many goals should we expect in HLM vs Casa Sport?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for HLM, 1.04 for Casa Sport). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is HLM vs Casa Sport played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 1.
What form are HLM and Casa Sport in?
HLM: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 3 conceded). Casa Sport: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 4 conceded).
What was the HLM vs Casa Sport result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: HLM 2-2 Casa Sport. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for HLM (51%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
How is the HLM vs Casa Sport prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for HLM, 1.04 for Casa Sport) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All HLM predictions
- All Casa Sport predictions
- Senegal Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology