Senegal Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)
Jaraaf vs AJEL: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Jaraaf 1-1 AJEL. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Jaraaf (51%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
Match analysis
Jaraaf and AJEL met on Saturday, October 17, 2026, a Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 1 fixture. Venue: Stade de Diaraf, Dakar. Before kick-off, our model gave Jaraaf a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AJEL 24%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Jaraaf are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 5 and conceding 0. Over their last 5 matches, AJEL have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Jaraaf score 1.00 and concede 0.00 goals per game; AJEL score 1.00 and concede 0.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Jaraaf and AJEL: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Jaraaf or draw" stands at 76%, "AJEL or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Jaraaf are favourites for this Jaraaf v AJEL, with a 51% win probability from our model. On recent form, Jaraaf have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5 while AJEL have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Jaraaf – AJEL. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaraaf 1-1 AJEL | 11.8% |
| Jaraaf 1-0 AJEL | 11.4% |
| Jaraaf 2-1 AJEL | 9.5% |
| Jaraaf 2-0 AJEL | 9.2% |
| Jaraaf 0-1 AJEL | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.61 expected goals for Jaraaf and 1.04 for AJEL, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Jaraaf keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, AJEL in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Jaraaf expected goals | 1.61 |
| AJEL expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Jaraaf clean sheet | 35% |
| AJEL clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Jaraaf
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | AS Camberene · Senegal Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| May 22, 2026 | Casa Sport · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| May 17, 2026 | DSC · Senegal Ligue 1 | 3-0 | W |
| May 13, 2026 | Pikine · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| May 10, 2026 | Sonacos · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
AJEL
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Génération Foot · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| May 22, 2026 | La Linguère · Senegal Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| May 17, 2026 | Gorée · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| May 13, 2026 | Guédiawaye · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| May 10, 2026 | Teungueth · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaraaf | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| AJEL | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Jaraaf and AJEL: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Jaraaf
No absences reported.
AJEL
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Génération Foot 3-0 PikineOct 17, 2026
- Gorée 2-0 La LinguèreOct 17, 2026
- Wally Daan 0-0 Stade de MbourOct 17, 2026
- HLM 2-2 Casa SportOct 17, 2026
- Guédiawaye 2-1 DSCOct 17, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Jaraaf vs AJEL prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Jaraaf a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AJEL 24%. Jaraaf are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Jaraaf vs AJEL?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Jaraaf vs AJEL?
The probability that both Jaraaf and AJEL score is 52%. Jaraaf have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AJEL 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Jaraaf vs AJEL?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for Jaraaf, 1.04 for AJEL). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Jaraaf vs AJEL played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 1. Venue: Stade de Diaraf, Dakar.
What form are Jaraaf and AJEL in?
Jaraaf: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 0 conceded). AJEL: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 3 conceded).
What was the Jaraaf vs AJEL result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Jaraaf 1-1 AJEL. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Jaraaf (51%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
How is the Jaraaf vs AJEL prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Jaraaf, 1.04 for AJEL) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Jaraaf predictions
- All AJEL predictions
- Senegal Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology