UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Poland vs Sweden prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Poland vs Sweden match is scheduled on Tuesday, November 17, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Our model makes Sweden clear favourites: a 62% chance of winning, against 20% for the draw and 18% for Poland.
Poland have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Sweden have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Sweden therefore arrive in far better shape than Poland. On average Poland score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Sweden score 1.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Poland sit 3rd with 4 points from 4 games, Sweden 1st with 10 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Poland have averaged 1.57 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.51 for Sweden.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Poland, 2 for Sweden and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sweden 3-2 Poland (Mar 31, 2026). In double chance terms, "Poland or draw" stands at 38%, "Sweden or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 80%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Exact score and goal markets 🔒
The most likely exact score, the top 5 scorelines, expected goals and the both-teams-to-score and over/under probabilities are part of the full prediction. They will be published here as a review once the match is over.
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Poland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Romania · UEFA Nations League | 6-0 | W |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Sweden · UEFA Nations League | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Nigeria · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Sweden
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Romania · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Poland · UEFA Nations League | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Romania · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Sweden | 1 | 10 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden 3-2 Poland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Poland 2-0 Sweden | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Jun 23, 2021 | Sweden 3-2 Poland | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Poland
No absences reported.
Sweden
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Poland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Bednarek3/5
- N. Zalewski3/5
- J. Kiwior2/5
- Jakub Kiwior2/5
- Jan Bednarek2/5
- K. Swiderski2/5
- M. Cash2/5
- Marcin Bułka2/5
- Matty Cash2/5
- P. Frankowski2/5
- P. Zielinski2/5
Sweden
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- V. Lindelof5/5
- G. Gudmundsson4/5
- L. Bergvall4/5
- V. Gyokeres4/5
- V. Johansson4/5
- A. Bernhardsson3/5
- B. Zeneli3/5
- C. Starfelt3/5
- S. Nanasi3/5
- Y. Ayari3/5
- A. Isak2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Gibraltar – MaltaNov 16, 2026
- Switzerland – ScotlandNov 16, 2026
- Israel – AustriaNov 17, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina – RomaniaNov 17, 2026
- Ukraine – GeorgiaNov 17, 2026
- Ireland – KosovoNov 17, 2026
- Hungary – Northern IrelandNov 17, 2026
- Wales – PortugalNov 17, 2026
- Denmark – NorwayNov 17, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Poland vs Sweden prediction?
Our AI gives Poland a 18% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sweden 62%. Sweden are therefore favourites.
When and where is Poland vs Sweden played?
Tuesday, November 17, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Poland and Sweden in?
Poland: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). Sweden: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Poland and Sweden?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Poland, 2 for Sweden and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sweden 3-2 Poland (Mar 31, 2026).
Go further
- All Poland predictions
- All Sweden predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology