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UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Wales vs Portugal prediction: correct score and AI tips

WalesWales–PortugalPortugal

Match analysis

UEFA Nations League: the Wales vs Portugal match is scheduled on Tuesday, November 17, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Our model makes Portugal clear favourites: a 81% chance of winning, against 15% for the draw and 4% for Wales.

Wales have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Portugal have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Portugal therefore arrive in far better shape than Wales. On average Wales score 0.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Portugal score 1.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Wales sit 3rd with 3 points from 4 games, Portugal 1st with 12 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Wales have averaged 0.37 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.21 for Portugal.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Wales, 1 for Portugal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Portugal 2-0 Wales (Jul 6, 2016). In double chance terms, "Wales or draw" stands at 19%, "Portugal or draw" at 96% and "no draw" at 85%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

4%
Wales (Win)
15%
Draw
81%
Portugal (Win)

Double chance

19%
Wales or draw
96%
Portugal or draw
85%
No draw

Exact score and goal markets 🔒

The most likely exact score, the top 5 scorelines, expected goals and the both-teams-to-score and over/under probabilities are part of the full prediction. They will be published here as a review once the match is over.

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Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Wales

DateOpponentScore
Oct 4, 2026Denmark · UEFA Nations League0-1L
Oct 1, 2026Norway · UEFA Nations League2-1W
Sep 27, 2026Denmark · UEFA Nations League0-2L
Sep 24, 2026Portugal · UEFA Nations League0-1L
Jun 6, 2026Romania · International Friendlies1-2L

Portugal

DateOpponentScore
Oct 4, 2026Norway · UEFA Nations League2-1W
Oct 1, 2026Denmark · UEFA Nations League4-2W
Sep 27, 2026Norway · UEFA Nations League2-1W
Sep 24, 2026Wales · UEFA Nations League1-0W
Jul 6, 2026Spain · FIFA World Cup0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Wales334
Portugal1124

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 6, 2016Portugal 2-0 WalesEuro Championship

Out and doubtful

Wales

No absences reported.

Portugal

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Wales

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Ben Davies3/5
  • Danny Ward3/5
  • Ethan Ampadu3/5
  • Neco Williams3/5
  • Sorba Thomas3/5
  • B. Johnson2/5
  • Ben Cabango2/5
  • Brennan Johnson2/5
  • D. Ward2/5
  • Daniel James2/5
  • E. Ampadu2/5

Portugal

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Vitinha4/5
  • B. Fernandes3/5
  • D. Costa3/5
  • J. Cancelo3/5
  • N. Mendes3/5
  • P. Neto3/5
  • R. Dias3/5
  • R. Veiga3/5
  • C. Ronaldo2/5
  • Diogo Costa2/5
  • Francisco Conceição2/5

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Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Wales vs Portugal prediction?

Our AI gives Wales a 4% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Portugal 81%. Portugal are therefore favourites.

When and where is Wales vs Portugal played?

Tuesday, November 17, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.

What form are Wales and Portugal in?

Wales: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 7 conceded). Portugal: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Wales and Portugal?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Wales, 1 for Portugal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Portugal 2-0 Wales (Jul 6, 2016).

Go further

Key terms explained