Premier League· Kick-off : Saturday, November 21, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Premier League, matchday 11: Newcastle vs Arsenal kicks off on Saturday, November 21, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time). Venue: St. James' Park, Newcastle. With a 66% win probability, Arsenal go in as strong favourites against Newcastle (15%), with the draw rated at 19%.
Newcastle have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 7 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Arsenal. On average Newcastle score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Arsenal score 1.40 and concede 0.40. In the table, Newcastle sit 11th with 12 points from 10 games, Arsenal 1st with 27 points from 10. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Newcastle have averaged 1.32 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.61 for Arsenal.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Newcastle, 4 for Arsenal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle (Apr 25, 2026). Newcastle out or doubtful: M. Fernandez-Pardo, E. Jaouen, V. Livramento and L. Miley. Arsenal: B. Saka. In double chance terms, "Newcastle or draw" stands at 34%, "Arsenal or draw" at 85% and "no draw" at 81%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Exact score and goal markets 🔒
The most likely exact score, the top 5 scorelines, expected goals and the both-teams-to-score and over/under probabilities are part of the full prediction. They will be published here as a review once the match is over.
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Newcastle
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Fulham · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Everton · EFL Cup | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Crystal Palace · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Aston Villa · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
Arsenal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Hull City · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Slavia Praha · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Liverpool · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Fleetwood Town · EFL Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| Arsenal | 1 | 27 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Newcastle 1-2 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Arsenal 3-2 Newcastle | Club Friendlies |
| May 18, 2025 | Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Newcastle 2-0 Arsenal | EFL Cup |
Out and doubtful
Newcastle
- M. Fernandez-Pardo (out)
- E. Jaouen (out)
- V. Livramento (out)
- L. Miley (out)
Arsenal
- B. Saka (out)
Most regular starters
Newcastle
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Barnes4/5
- L. Hall4/5
- Nico González4/5
- A. Dedić3/5
- D. Burn3/5
- J. Willock3/5
- Joelinton3/5
- L. Horníček3/5
- W. Osula3/5
- F. Schär2/5
- J. Murphy2/5
Arsenal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Rice3/5
- David Raya3/5
- E. Konsa3/5
- Gabriel Magalhães3/5
- J. Timber3/5
- K. Havertz3/5
- N. Madueke3/5
- Bruno Guimarães2/5
- C. Tzolis2/5
- M. Ødegaard2/5
- R. Calafiori2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Manchester City – FulhamNov 21, 2026
- Aston Villa – SunderlandNov 21, 2026
- Chelsea – LeedsNov 21, 2026
- Bournemouth – Nottingham ForestNov 21, 2026
- Coventry – Crystal PalaceNov 21, 2026
- Tottenham – IpswichNov 21, 2026
- Hull City – BrightonNov 22, 2026
- Liverpool – Manchester UnitedNov 22, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction?
Our AI gives Newcastle a 15% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Arsenal 66%. Arsenal are therefore favourites.
When and where is Newcastle vs Arsenal played?
Saturday, November 21, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Premier League, matchday 11. Venue: St. James' Park, Newcastle.
What form are Newcastle and Arsenal in?
Newcastle: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). Arsenal: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 2 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Arsenal?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Newcastle, 4 for Arsenal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle (Apr 25, 2026).
Go further
- All Newcastle predictions
- All Arsenal predictions
- Premier League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology