Primeira Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, November 1, 2026, 15:30 (UK time)
Arouca vs Nacional prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Primeira Liga, matchday 10: Arouca vs Nacional kicks off on Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 15:30 (UK time). Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca. With a 72% win probability, Arouca go in as strong favourites against Nacional (7%), with the draw rated at 21%.
Over their last 5 matches, Arouca have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Nacional have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 13. Recent momentum is clearly with Arouca. On average Arouca score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Nacional score 0.60 and concede 2.60. In the table, Arouca sit 5th with 17 points from 9 games, Nacional 15th with 7 points from 9. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Arouca have averaged 0.91 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.65 for Nacional.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Arouca, 0 for Nacional and 0 draws. The most recent ended Arouca 3-0 Nacional (Feb 21, 2026). In double chance terms, "Arouca or draw" stands at 93%, "Nacional or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 79%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Exact score and goal markets 🔒
The most likely exact score, the top 5 scorelines, expected goals and the both-teams-to-score and over/under probabilities are part of the full prediction. They will be published here as a review once the match is over.
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Arouca
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses · Taça de Portugal | 4-3 | W |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela · Primeira Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara · Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril · Primeira Liga | 0-0 | D |
Nacional
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sanjoanense · Taça de Portugal | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rio Ave · Primeira Liga | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Famalicao · Primeira Liga | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca · Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP · Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 5 | 17 | 9 |
| Nacional | 15 | 7 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Arouca 3-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Nacional 1-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
Out and doubtful
Arouca
No absences reported.
Nacional
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Arouca
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Trezza5/5
- E. van Ee5/5
- I. Barbero5/5
- I. De Arruabarrena5/5
- J. Fontan5/5
- N. Djouahra5/5
- O. Lebedenko5/5
- T. Fukui5/5
- Tiago Esgaio5/5
- J. Sanchez4/5
- P. Gozalbez4/5
Nacional
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Ze Vitor5/5
- C. Goncalves4/5
- R. Marin4/5
- W. Kokolo4/5
- C. Labidi3/5
- M. Baeza3/5
- M. Djalo3/5
- M. Jensen3/5
- Matheus Dias3/5
- Song Min-Kyu3/5
- A. Njoya2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Casa Pia – Sporting CPOct 30, 2026
- Moreirense – EstrelaOct 31, 2026
- FC Porto – EstorilOct 31, 2026
- Maritimo – Santa ClaraNov 1, 2026
- Academico Viseu – Rio AveNov 1, 2026
- SC Braga – FamalicaoNov 1, 2026
- GIL Vicente – GuimaraesNov 2, 2026
- Benfica – AlvercaNov 2, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Arouca vs Nacional prediction?
Our AI gives Arouca a 72% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nacional 7%. Arouca are therefore favourites.
When and where is Arouca vs Nacional played?
Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 15:30 (UK time), Primeira Liga, matchday 10. Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca.
What form are Arouca and Nacional in?
Arouca: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Nacional: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 13 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Nacional?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Arouca, 0 for Nacional and 0 draws. The most recent ended Arouca 3-0 Nacional (Feb 21, 2026).
Go further
- All Arouca predictions
- All Nacional predictions
- Primeira Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology