Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 02:30 (UK time)
Millonarios vs Once Caldas: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Millonarios 1-1 Once Caldas. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Millonarios (90%), while a draw was rated at only 7%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): missed.
Match analysis
Millonarios vs Once Caldas was played on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 (Colombian Primera A). Venue: Estadio El Campin, Bogota. Before kick-off, our model gave Millonarios a 90% chance of winning, the draw 7% and Once Caldas 3%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (12.5%), ahead of 4-0 (10.9%) and 2-0 (10.7%).
Millonarios are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (1 win, 4 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Once Caldas have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Millonarios score 1.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Once Caldas score 1.00 and concede 1.00. In the table, Millonarios sit 4th with 25 points from 15 games, Once Caldas 9th with 19 points from 14. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Millonarios have averaged 2.81 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.68 for Once Caldas.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Millonarios, 0 for Once Caldas and 4 draws. The most recent ended Once Caldas 1-4 Millonarios (Mar 21, 2026). In double chance terms, "Millonarios or draw" stands at 97%, "Once Caldas or draw" at 10% and "no draw" at 93%.
In short : Our model backs Millonarios to edge Once Caldas (90% probability). On recent form, Millonarios have 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Once Caldas have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 77%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Millonarios – Once Caldas. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Millonarios 3-0 Once Caldas | 12.5% |
| Millonarios 4-0 Once Caldas | 10.9% |
| Millonarios 2-0 Once Caldas | 10.7% |
| Millonarios 5-0 Once Caldas | 7.6% |
| Millonarios 3-1 Once Caldas | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.04 goals in total (3.49 for Millonarios, 0.55 for Once Caldas): over 2.5 goals has a 77% probability and both teams to score 41%. Everything points to an open game. Millonarios keep a clean sheet in 58% of scenarios, Once Caldas in 3%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Millonarios expected goals | 3.49 |
| Once Caldas expected goals | 0.55 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% |
| Millonarios clean sheet | 58% |
| Once Caldas clean sheet | 3% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Millonarios
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Jaguares · Colombian Primera A | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Fortaleza FC · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Barranquilla · Copa Colombia | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Atletico Nacional · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
Once Caldas
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Llaneros · Colombian Primera A | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bucaramanga · Colombian Primera A | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millonarios | 4 | 25 | 15 |
| Once Caldas | 9 | 19 | 14 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Once Caldas 1-4 Millonarios | Primera A |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Millonarios 0-0 Once Caldas | Primera A |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Millonarios 2-2 Once Caldas | Primera A |
| Jun 9, 2025 | Once Caldas 0-0 Millonarios | Primera A |
| May 12, 2025 | Once Caldas 2-2 Millonarios | Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Millonarios
No absences reported.
Once Caldas
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Millonarios
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Burrai5/5
- D. Ruiz4/5
- S. Barreiro4/5
- S. Mosquera4/5
- A. Estupinan3/5
- F. Chaverra3/5
- J. Cuadrado3/5
- L. Castro3/5
- Leonai Souza3/5
- R. Urena3/5
- S. Vega3/5
Once Caldas
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Colorado4/5
- A. Roa4/5
- D. Londono4/5
- J. D. Cuesta Santos4/5
- J. Parra4/5
- M. Barrios4/5
- A. Correa3/5
- J. A. Zapata Ramirez3/5
- J. Cardona3/5
- J. Quinones3/5
- D. Moreno2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Bucaramanga 1-1 America de CaliOct 18, 2026
- Llaneros 1-0 Santa FeOct 19, 2026
- Deportivo Cali 0-0 JuniorOct 19, 2026
- Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Alianza ValleduparOct 20, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira 2-0 ChicoOct 20, 2026
- Internacional de Bogota 2-1 Fortaleza FCOct 21, 2026
- Cucuta 1-0 Atletico NacionalOct 21, 2026
- Llaneros 0-3 Deportivo CaliOct 22, 2026
- Santa Fe 2-1 JaguaresOct 22, 2026
- Atletico Nacional 3-0 Deportivo PastoOct 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Millonarios vs Once Caldas prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Millonarios a 90% chance of winning, the draw 7% and Once Caldas 3%. Millonarios are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Millonarios vs Once Caldas?
3-0 (12.5%), followed by 4-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.7%), 5-0 (7.6%) and 3-1 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Millonarios vs Once Caldas?
The probability that both Millonarios and Once Caldas score is 41%. Millonarios have a 58% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Once Caldas 3%.
How many goals should we expect in Millonarios vs Once Caldas?
The model expects 4.04 goals (3.49 for Millonarios, 0.55 for Once Caldas). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 57%.
When and where is Millonarios vs Once Caldas played?
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 02:30 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio El Campin, Bogota.
What form are Millonarios and Once Caldas in?
Millonarios: 1 win, 4 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded). Once Caldas: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Millonarios and Once Caldas?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Millonarios, 0 for Once Caldas and 4 draws. The most recent ended Once Caldas 1-4 Millonarios (Mar 21, 2026).
What was the Millonarios vs Once Caldas result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Millonarios 1-1 Once Caldas. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Millonarios (90%), while a draw was rated at only 7%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (77%): missed.
How is the Millonarios vs Once Caldas prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.49 for Millonarios, 0.55 for Once Caldas) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Millonarios predictions
- All Once Caldas predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology