Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Thursday, October 22, 2026, 02:20 (UK time)
Santa Fe vs Jaguares: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Santa Fe 2-1 Jaguares. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Santa Fe at 85%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (20%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
Match analysis
Santa Fe and Jaguares met on Thursday, October 22, 2026, a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio El Campin, Bogota. Before kick-off, our model gave Santa Fe a 85% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Jaguares 3%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (20.5%), followed by 1-0 (17.6%) and 3-0 (16.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Santa Fe have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Jaguares have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 12. Santa Fe therefore arrive in far better shape than Jaguares. On average Santa Fe score 1.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Jaguares score 1.20 and concede 2.40. In the table, Santa Fe sit 7th with 22 points from 13 games, Jaguares 19th with 10 points from 13. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Santa Fe have averaged 1.34 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.26 for Jaguares.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Santa Fe, 2 for Jaguares and 1 draw. The most recent ended Jaguares 3-1 Santa Fe (Feb 17, 2026). In double chance terms, "Santa Fe or draw" stands at 97%, "Jaguares or draw" at 15% and "no draw" at 88%.
In short : Our model backs Santa Fe to edge Jaguares (85% probability). On recent form, Santa Fe have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Jaguares are struggling (4 losses in 5). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 20%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Santa Fe – Jaguares. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (20.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 71% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Santa Fe 2-0 Jaguares | 20.5% |
| Santa Fe 1-0 Jaguares | 17.6% |
| Santa Fe 3-0 Jaguares | 16.0% |
| Santa Fe 4-0 Jaguares | 9.4% |
| Santa Fe 0-0 Jaguares | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.34 expected goals for Santa Fe and 0.25 for Jaguares, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 20%. Santa Fe keep a clean sheet in 78% of scenarios, Jaguares in 10%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Santa Fe expected goals | 2.34 |
| Jaguares expected goals | 0.25 |
| Both teams to score | 20% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Santa Fe clean sheet | 78% |
| Jaguares clean sheet | 10% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Santa Fe
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Llaneros · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Fortaleza FC · Copa Colombia | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Deportivo Pereira · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Union Magdalena · Copa Colombia | 1-1 | D |
Jaguares
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Millonarios · Colombian Primera A | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportes Tolima · Colombian Primera A | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Fe | 7 | 22 | 13 |
| Jaguares | 19 | 10 | 13 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2026 | Jaguares 3-1 Santa Fe | Primera A |
| Nov 15, 2024 | Santa Fe 3-0 Jaguares | Primera A |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Jaguares 1-0 Santa Fe | Primera A |
| Jul 20, 2023 | Santa Fe 1-0 Jaguares | Primera A |
| Jan 27, 2023 | Jaguares 2-2 Santa Fe | Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Santa Fe
No absences reported.
Jaguares
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Santa Fe
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Mafla4/4
- H. Palacios4/4
- A. Zapata3/4
- D. Torres3/4
- E. Olivera3/4
- F. Fagundez3/4
- J. Obrian3/4
- J. Torres3/4
- N. Bustos3/4
- V. Moreno3/4
- A. Mosquera2/4
Jaguares
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Renteria5/5
- C. Henao5/5
- R. Bustamante5/5
- R. R. Colpa Bolano5/5
- J. Franco4/5
- L. Jimenez4/5
- D. Martinez3/5
- J. Lovera3/5
- J. Mejia3/5
- Jopito3/5
- D. Lopez2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Alianza ValleduparOct 20, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira 2-0 ChicoOct 20, 2026
- Internacional de Bogota 2-1 Fortaleza FCOct 21, 2026
- Cucuta 1-0 Atletico NacionalOct 21, 2026
- Millonarios 1-1 Once CaldasOct 21, 2026
- Llaneros 0-3 Deportivo CaliOct 22, 2026
- Atletico Nacional 3-0 Deportivo PastoOct 23, 2026
- Chico 1-0 BucaramangaOct 24, 2026
- Junior 1-0 Águilas DoradasOct 24, 2026
- America de Cali 3-1 CucutaOct 25, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Santa Fe vs Jaguares prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Santa Fe a 85% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Jaguares 3%. Santa Fe are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Santa Fe vs Jaguares?
2-0 (20.5%), followed by 1-0 (17.6%), 3-0 (16.0%), 4-0 (9.4%) and 0-0 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Santa Fe vs Jaguares?
The probability that both Santa Fe and Jaguares score is 20%. Santa Fe have a 78% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Jaguares 10%.
How many goals should we expect in Santa Fe vs Jaguares?
The model expects 2.59 goals (2.34 for Santa Fe, 0.25 for Jaguares). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Santa Fe vs Jaguares played?
Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:20 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio El Campin, Bogota.
What form are Santa Fe and Jaguares in?
Santa Fe: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded). Jaguares: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 12 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Fe and Jaguares?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Santa Fe, 2 for Jaguares and 1 draw. The most recent ended Jaguares 3-1 Santa Fe (Feb 17, 2026).
What was the Santa Fe vs Jaguares result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Santa Fe 2-1 Jaguares. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Santa Fe at 85%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (20%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
How is the Santa Fe vs Jaguares prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.34 for Santa Fe, 0.25 for Jaguares) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Santa Fe predictions
- All Jaguares predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology