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Uruguayan Primera DivisiónUruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Friday, October 16, 2026, 23:00 (UK time)

Cerro vs Cerro Largo: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

CerroCerro1 – 1Cerro LargoCerro Largo

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Cerro 1-1 Cerro Largo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cerro (76%), while a draw was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.3%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (60%): missed.

Match analysis

Cerro and Cerro Largo met on Friday, October 16, 2026, a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Monumental Luis Tróccoli, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Cerro a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Cerro Largo 9%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (13.1%), followed by 1-0 (10.8%) and 3-0 (10.7%).

Cerro have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. Cerro Largo have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Cerro score 1.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Cerro Largo score 0.40 and concede 1.40. In the table, Cerro sit 7th with 17 points from 10 games, Cerro Largo 15th with 5 points from 10. 8 places separate the two sides.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cerro, 1 for Cerro Largo and 1 draw. The most recent ended Cerro Largo 2-0 Cerro (May 29, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cerro or draw" stands at 91%, "Cerro Largo or draw" at 24% and "no draw" at 85%.

In short : Cerro are favourites for this Cerro v Cerro Largo, with a 76% win probability from our model. In the table, Cerro (7th, 17 pts) host Cerro Largo (15th, 5 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

76%
Cerro (Win)
15%
Draw
9%
Cerro Largo (Win)

Double chance

91%
Cerro or draw
24%
Cerro Largo or draw
85%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Cerro – Cerro Largo. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Cerro 2-0 Cerro Largo13.1%
Cerro 1-0 Cerro Largo10.8%
Cerro 3-0 Cerro Largo10.7%
Cerro 2-1 Cerro Largo8.9%
Cerro 1-1 Cerro Largo7.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.44 expected goals for Cerro and 0.68 for Cerro Largo, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 60% and "both teams to score" at 45%. Goals look likely in this one. Cerro keep a clean sheet in 51% of scenarios, Cerro Largo in 9%.

Probability
Cerro expected goals2.44
Cerro Largo expected goals0.68
Both teams to score45%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Cerro clean sheet51%
Cerro Largo clean sheet9%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Cerro

DateOpponentScore
Oct 10, 2026Defensor Sporting · Uruguayan Primera División3-2W
Oct 4, 2026Wanderers · Uruguayan Primera División0-2L
Sep 27, 2026Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División0-0D
Sep 24, 2026Deportivo Maldonado · Copa Uruguay1-2L
Sep 19, 2026Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División1-2L

Cerro Largo

DateOpponentScore
Oct 11, 2026Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División0-1L
Oct 4, 2026Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División1-2L
Sep 30, 2026Rentistas · Copa Uruguay1-0W
Sep 26, 2026Club Nacional · Uruguayan Primera División0-2L
Sep 19, 2026Deportivo Maldonado · Uruguayan Primera División0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Cerro71710
Cerro Largo15510

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 29, 2026Cerro Largo 2-0 CerroUruguayan Primera División
Apr 11, 2026Cerro Largo 1-1 CerroUruguayan Primera División

Out and doubtful

Cerro

No absences reported.

Cerro Largo

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Cerro

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Macelli4/4
  • B. Aleman4/4
  • C. Barros4/4
  • E. Rodriguez4/4
  • J. Amaro4/4
  • J. Guasone4/4
  • Y. Irrazabal4/4
  • D. Suarez3/4
  • G. Rodriguez3/4
  • Leonardo Pais3/4
  • N. Arena3/4

Cerro Largo

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Hernandez4/4
  • A. Pandiani4/4
  • A. Piegas4/4
  • P. M. Gonzalez Ojeda4/4
  • S. Assis4/4
  • S. Franca4/4
  • A. Segovia3/4
  • B. Lozano3/4
  • M. Garcia3/4
  • N. Ramos3/4
  • S. Marcel3/4

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Cerro vs Cerro Largo prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Cerro a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Cerro Largo 9%. Cerro are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Cerro vs Cerro Largo?

2-0 (13.1%), followed by 1-0 (10.8%), 3-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (8.9%) and 1-1 (7.3%).

Will both teams score in Cerro vs Cerro Largo?

The probability that both Cerro and Cerro Largo score is 45%. Cerro have a 51% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cerro Largo 9%.

How many goals should we expect in Cerro vs Cerro Largo?

The model expects 3.12 goals (2.44 for Cerro, 0.68 for Cerro Largo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 38%.

When and where is Cerro vs Cerro Largo played?

Friday, October 16, 2026 at 23:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Monumental Luis Tróccoli, Montevideo.

What form are Cerro and Cerro Largo in?

Cerro: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded). Cerro Largo: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Cerro and Cerro Largo?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cerro, 1 for Cerro Largo and 1 draw. The most recent ended Cerro Largo 2-0 Cerro (May 29, 2026).

What was the Cerro vs Cerro Largo result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Cerro 1-1 Cerro Largo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cerro (76%), while a draw was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.3%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (60%): missed.

How is the Cerro vs Cerro Largo prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.44 for Cerro, 0.68 for Cerro Largo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained