Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 24, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo: 3-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Defensor Sporting 3-3 Racing Montevideo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Racing Montevideo (41%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
Match analysis
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo was played on Saturday, October 24, 2026 (Uruguayan Primera División). Venue: Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo. Before kick-off, our model gave Defensor Sporting a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Racing Montevideo 41%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.5%), ahead of 0-1 (10.4%) and 1-0 (9.1%).
Defensor Sporting have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. Racing Montevideo have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Defensor Sporting score 1.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Racing Montevideo score 0.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Defensor Sporting sit 14th with 8 points from 11 games, Racing Montevideo 9th with 15 points from 11. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Defensor Sporting, 0 for Racing Montevideo and 2 draws. The most recent ended Racing Montevideo 0-0 Defensor Sporting (May 30, 2026). In double chance terms, "Defensor Sporting or draw" stands at 59%, "Racing Montevideo or draw" at 67% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo: our model sees no clear favourite. In the table, Defensor Sporting (14th, 8 pts) host Racing Montevideo (9th, 15 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 53%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Defensor Sporting – Racing Montevideo. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting 1-1 Racing Montevideo | 12.5% |
| Defensor Sporting 0-1 Racing Montevideo | 10.4% |
| Defensor Sporting 1-0 Racing Montevideo | 9.1% |
| Defensor Sporting 1-2 Racing Montevideo | 8.6% |
| Defensor Sporting 2-1 Racing Montevideo | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.59 goals in total (1.21 for Defensor Sporting, 1.38 for Racing Montevideo): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 53%. Defensor Sporting keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Racing Montevideo in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting expected goals | 1.21 |
| Racing Montevideo expected goals | 1.38 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Defensor Sporting clean sheet | 25% |
| Racing Montevideo clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Defensor Sporting
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Albion FC · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Plaza Colonia · Copa Uruguay | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Danubio · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
Racing Montevideo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Wanderers · Uruguayan Primera División | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Juventud · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Penarol · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 14 | 8 | 11 |
| Racing Montevideo | 9 | 15 | 11 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Racing Montevideo 0-0 Defensor Sporting | Uruguayan Primera División |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Racing Montevideo 1-1 Defensor Sporting | Uruguayan Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Defensor Sporting
No absences reported.
Racing Montevideo
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Defensor Sporting
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Montenegro4/4
- G. Barrios4/4
- G. Rodriguez4/4
- K. Dawson4/4
- L. Agazzi4/4
- G. De los Santos3/4
- L. de los Santos3/4
- N. Wunsch3/4
- A. Frugone2/4
- E. Elizalde2/4
- F. Sorondo2/4
Racing Montevideo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Varese5/5
- Y. Oyarzo5/5
- A. Vazquez4/5
- Agustin De la Cuesta4/5
- E. Da Silva4/5
- F. Alvarez4/5
- G. Cotugno4/5
- S. Da Silva4/5
- Brazionis3/5
- J. Bosca3/5
- M. Ferreira3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Juventud 0-0 PenarolOct 24, 2026
- Central Espanol 1-3 Albion FCOct 24, 2026
- Deportivo Maldonado 2-1 DanubioOct 24, 2026
- Wanderers 0-1 ProgresoOct 25, 2026
- Atletico Torque 3-1 CerroOct 25, 2026
- Cerro Largo 2-0 Boston RiverOct 25, 2026
- Club Nacional 0-1 Liverpool MontevideoOct 25, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Defensor Sporting a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Racing Montevideo 41%. Racing Montevideo are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.6%) and 2-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo?
The probability that both Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo score is 53%. Defensor Sporting have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Racing Montevideo 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo?
The model expects 2.59 goals (1.21 for Defensor Sporting, 1.38 for Racing Montevideo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo played?
Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo.
What form are Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo in?
Defensor Sporting: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded). Racing Montevideo: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Defensor Sporting, 0 for Racing Montevideo and 2 draws. The most recent ended Racing Montevideo 0-0 Defensor Sporting (May 30, 2026).
What was the Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Defensor Sporting 3-3 Racing Montevideo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Racing Montevideo (41%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): missed.
How is the Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.21 for Defensor Sporting, 1.38 for Racing Montevideo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Defensor Sporting predictions
- All Racing Montevideo predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology